plugin.json

{
  "$schema": "https://agent-plugins.org/schemas/1.0.0/plugin.schema.json",
  "name": "predictionmarketspicks",
  "version": "1.0.3",
  "description": "Market-implied odds for every upcoming Fed meeting and a live read on the US economy, inside ChatGPT. Informational and read-only: it places no trades and connects to no accounts.",
  "author": {
    "name": "PredictionMarketsPicks",
    "email": "predictionmarketspicks@gmail.com",
    "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com"
  },
  "homepage": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker",
  "repository": "https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp",
  "keywords": [
    "federal reserve",
    "fomc",
    "interest rates",
    "fed rate odds",
    "us economy",
    "base rates",
    "probability",
    "prediction markets"
  ],
  "extensions": {
    "com.openai": {
      "interface": {
        "displayName": "PredictionMarketsPicks",
        "shortDescription": "Fed rate odds & US macro data",
        "longDescription": "PredictionMarketsPicks brings market-implied forecasts for the Federal Reserve and the US economy into ChatGPT. Ask in plain English and get the numbers with an as-of time and a link to the full tracker on predictionmarketspicks.com.\n\nWhat you can ask:\n\u2022 \"What are the odds the Fed cuts at the next meeting?\" \u2014 hold, cut and hike probabilities for every scheduled FOMC meeting from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, cross-checked against CME fed funds futures.\n\u2022 \"Where does the market see rates by next summer?\" \u2014 the market-implied rate path and the current fed funds target range.\n\u2022 \"How healthy is the US economy right now?\" \u2014 a 0\u2013100 macro-health score and regime, with growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity and sentiment scores.\n\u2022 \"Markets price a Fed hold at 60% \u2014 how does that compare with history?\" \u2014 historical base rates for Fed, inflation, recession and growth events, with sample size and source.\n\u2022 \"I put a recession at 30%. How should this new data change that?\" \u2014 a step-by-step Bayesian update.\n\nHow it works: every number comes from a tool result, never an estimate. Market-implied probabilities describe what the market is pricing, not what will happen.\n\nInformational and read-only. It places no trades, connects to no exchange or brokerage account, and is not financial advice.",
        "developerName": "PredictionMarketsPicks",
        "category": "Finance",
        "capabilities": [
          "Hold / cut / hike probabilities for every scheduled FOMC meeting",
          "Kalshi vs CME fed funds futures cross-check",
          "The market-implied rate path and current target range",
          "US macro-health score (0\u2013100) with six category scores",
          "Historical base rates for Fed, inflation, recession and growth events",
          "Bayesian probability updates, step by step"
        ],
        "websiteURL": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker",
        "supportURL": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/about",
        "privacyPolicyURL": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/privacy",
        "termsOfServiceURL": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tos",
        "defaultPrompt": [
          "What are the odds the Fed cuts at the next meeting?",
          "How healthy is the US economy right now?",
          "Markets price a Fed hold at 60% \u2014 how does that compare with history?"
        ],
        "brandColor": "#1B1340",
        "brandColorDark": "#C9A243",
        "composerIcon": "./assets/icon.png",
        "logo": "./assets/logo.png"
      },
      "review": {
        "test_cases": {
          "positive": [
            {
              "description": "Next FOMC meeting odds and the rate path",
              "prompt": "What are the odds the Fed cuts at the next meeting?",
              "tools_triggered": "fed_rate_odds",
              "expected_behavior": "Calls fed_rate_odds and reports the market-implied hold, cut and hike probabilities for the next FOMC meeting and the days until it, the rate path for the following meetings, the current fed funds target range and the Kalshi vs CME fed funds futures cross-check, with an as-of time and a link to the Fed rate tracker on predictionmarketspicks.com. Every number comes from the tool result; it makes no trading recommendation."
            },
            {
              "description": "US macro health",
              "prompt": "How healthy is the US economy right now?",
              "tools_triggered": "market_pulse",
              "expected_behavior": "Calls market_pulse and reports the 0\u2013100 US macro-health score, the regime and all six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment), with an as-of time and a link to the full macro page."
            },
            {
              "description": "A probability against its historical base rate",
              "prompt": "Markets price a Fed hold at 60% while unemployment is under 4%. How does that compare with history?",
              "tools_triggered": "base_rate_gap",
              "expected_behavior": "Calls base_rate_gap with marketPrice 60 and baseRateId fed_hold_unemp_below_4 and reports the historical base rate with its sample size and source, the gap in percentage points, and whether 60% sits above or below history \u2014 as information, with no buy or sell call."
            },
            {
              "description": "Bayesian update of the user's own estimate",
              "prompt": "I think there's a 30% chance of a recession next year. A signal that shows up 80% of the time before recessions and 40% of the time otherwise just fired. What's my updated probability?",
              "tools_triggered": "bayes_update",
              "expected_behavior": "Calls bayes_update with prior 30 and one evidence item (80 / 40) and reports the posterior, about 46%, with the step-by-step chain."
            },
            {
              "description": "The market-implied rate path",
              "prompt": "Where does the market see the fed funds rate by next summer?",
              "tools_triggered": "fed_rate_odds",
              "expected_behavior": "Calls fed_rate_odds and reports the market-implied path for each scheduled FOMC meeting through next summer (hold, cut and hike probabilities per meeting) and the current fed funds target range, with an as-of time and a link to the Fed rate tracker on predictionmarketspicks.com. Every number comes from the tool result; it makes no trading recommendation."
            }
          ],
          "negative": [
            {
              "description": "Placing trades is not supported",
              "prompt": "Buy a Yes contract on a rate cut at the next Fed meeting for me."
            },
            {
              "description": "No access to any exchange or brokerage account",
              "prompt": "Show me the balance and open positions in my brokerage account."
            },
            {
              "description": "Estimating without a tool result is not allowed",
              "prompt": "Just guess the odds of a Fed hike without looking anything up."
            }
          ]
        },
        "demo_recording_url": "https://youtu.be/ZvYN-oFcRos",
        "commerce": false,
        "commerce_description": "This plugin sells nothing and processes no payments. It returns informational market-implied probabilities and economic data; it places no trades, opens no accounts, shows no prices for our own products, and links only to informational pages on predictionmarketspicks.com."
      },
      "publication": {
        "release_notes": "Initial release: 25 read-only prediction-market tools \u2014 Kalshi and Polymarket prices, NFL and NHL model reads, Fed and 15-minute commodity/crypto odds, Senate map, and expected-value, Kelly and probability calculators."
      },
      "apps": "./.app.json"
    }
  }
}