Update to Equity Council

{
  "description": "Analyze observable market expectations, thesis milestones, and catalysts for a long-term public-equity investment, separating business outcomes from price reactions.",
  "included_files": [
    {
      "relative_path": "agents/openai.yaml",
      "size_in_bytes": 274
    }
  ],
  "name": "equity-catalysts",
  "skill_md_contents": "---\nname: equity-catalysts\ndescription: Analyze observable market expectations, thesis milestones, and catalysts for a long-term public-equity investment, separating business outcomes from price reactions.\n---\n\n# Expectations, milestones, and catalysts\n\nIdentify what expectations a company must meet or exceed, which future evidence can resolve uncertainty, and how developments could affect 5–10 year shareholder outcomes. Read the [operating contract](../../references/operating-contract.md) and follow the director's plan. In standalone work, state the investigation procedure and evidence cutoff before executing.\n\n## Investigation\n\n1. Establish the security, price timestamp, corporate-action basis, and relevant business facts. Follow the [evidence standard](../../references/evidence-standard.md). Separate management guidance, dated analyst consensus, observed market prices, and your own assumptions. If consensus data is unavailable, say so; do not infer a precise consensus forecast from price alone.\n2. Work with valuation to translate entry price into conditional required growth, margins, reinvestment, dilution, or terminal valuation. An inverse valuation has multiple possible solutions: disclose which inputs are held fixed. Contrast these requirements with supported operating ranges; avoid calling a modeled assumption an observed market belief.\n3. Build a dated thesis milestone map. Include capacity qualification, customer adoption, retention, margin maturation, debt refinancing, regulatory decisions, patent changes, or capital returns only where relevant. Distinguish an underlying economic development from its announcement and from an expected price reaction.\n4. For each material catalyst, record the event or observation, timing window, source, prior expectation, mechanism, dependencies, affected model inputs, and falsifying evidence. Separate probability of the event from probability and magnitude of a favorable stock response. Avoid adding overlapping catalysts as independent upside when they express the same demand or margin driver.\n5. Connect interim evidence to the long-term thesis. State what would strengthen, weaken, or invalidate it and how quickly evidence should emerge. A delayed milestone may change cash-flow timing, financing needs, or dilution even if the eventual business opportunity survives. Reassess those dependencies before simply moving a date.\n\n## Errors to prevent\n\nAn earnings beat is neither a guaranteed catalyst nor sufficient evidence of outperformance. A product announcement is not revenue, and revenue is not distributable shareholder cash. Low analyst coverage does not establish mispricing. High short interest or index inclusion can affect trading without validating business value. A compounder need not have an imminent discrete catalyst; durable cash generation and reinvestment can support a thesis with gradual evidence accumulation.\n\n## Deliverable and handoff\n\nReturn an expectations table, conditional implied-expectation analysis, milestone/catalyst register, dependency overlaps, counterevidence, and thesis-breaking observations. Include source and claim IDs, dates, units, assumptions, and confidence reasons. Handoff model changes to the director; do not change the canonical valuation independently. Use the [report contract](../../references/report-contract.md) for monitoring presentation. Save a checklist without scheduling anything. Finish with complete/conditional status; missing decisive market data precludes a current actionable ranking.\n"
}