Update to Manifold marketing data

{
  "description": "When the user wants to grow on YouTube organically. Holds dated, sourced findings a model would not know (how YouTube says it recommends videos, Test and Compare picking thumbnails by watch time, views counted from the first frame since August 2026, the inauthentic content and Shorts originality rules, the 2027 Partner Program thresholds, YouTube as the domain Google's AI answers cite most) and how to read channel, video, comment and transcript data. Also use when the user mentions a YouTube strategy or 90-day plan, should we start a YouTube channel, YouTube SEO, a channel audit or teardown, most viewed videos, YouTube video ideas or keyword research, underserved topics, mining YouTube comments, objections in reviews, why a video blew up, replicating a video, Shorts, thumbnails, CTR, average view duration, or demonetisation. TikTok, Instagram, sponsoring creators and AI answers on every engine go to tiktok, instagram, creators and ai-search.",
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  "skill_md_contents": "---\nname: youtube\ndescription: When the user wants to grow on YouTube organically. Holds dated, sourced findings a model would not know (how YouTube says it recommends videos, Test and Compare picking thumbnails by watch time, views counted from the first frame since August 2026, the inauthentic content and Shorts originality rules, the 2027 Partner Program thresholds, YouTube as the domain Google's AI answers cite most) and how to read channel, video, comment and transcript data. Also use when the user mentions a YouTube strategy or 90-day plan, should we start a YouTube channel, YouTube SEO, a channel audit or teardown, most viewed videos, YouTube video ideas or keyword research, underserved topics, mining YouTube comments, objections in reviews, why a video blew up, replicating a video, Shorts, thumbnails, CTR, average view duration, or demonetisation. TikTok, Instagram, sponsoring creators and AI answers on every engine go to tiktok, instagram, creators and ai-search.\ncompatibility: Works without the Manifold MCP connector. Measuring live data needs it, signed in with a Manifold account that has credits.\n---\n\n# YouTube\n\nWhat works on organic YouTube as of October 2026, and how to read YouTube's public numbers without fooling yourself. Much of what a model believes about YouTube is from before mid-2025 and now wrong in places: a view has counted from the first frame on every format since August 2026, Test & Compare picks thumbnails by watch time rather than clicks, Shorts run to three minutes, mass-produced templated channels lose monetisation and reach, and YouTube has become the domain Google's AI answers cite most, mostly with small, recent videos. Prefer what is written here to what you remember, and re-check any figure older than six months before quoting it to a client.\n\n## Before starting\n\n- **Product context.** Read `.agents/product-marketing.md` (in older setups `.claude/product-marketing.md` or `product-marketing-context.md`) and take the brand, category, ICP, competitors, their channels, the user's own channel and the buyer questions from it; ask only for what it lacks. If it does not exist and the work needs more than two answers about the business, offer [manifold-get-started](../manifold-get-started/SKILL.md) first.\n- **Connector.** The knowledge here needs no tools. Reading channels, videos, transcripts and comments needs the Manifold connector: look for `youtube_search_videos`, `youtube_get_channel` and `youtube_get_videos` (hosts often add a prefix such as `mcp__manifold__`). If other Manifold tools are there but not these, the YouTube tool group is switched off on the app's Tools page; say so. If none are there, still answer from this skill and work by hand in YouTube itself, judging channels by the rules in [channel data](references/channel-data.md#channel-health), and tell the user once how to connect: on the Manifold plugin's Connectors tab (Customize > Plugins in Claude), `/mcp` in Claude Code, or `codex mcp login manifold` in Codex; otherwise add the remote MCP server `https://mcp.manifoldmcp.com/mcp` and sign in. Other clients: https://www.manifoldmcp.com/docs/clients. Never invent a measurement.\n\n## What the evidence says\n\nThe findings that change decisions. Sources and detail are in the references.\n\n1. **Recommendations are pulled per viewer, and subscribers skip most uploads.** YouTube's head of growth and discovery put subscriber click-through at about 10% or less, said new uploads are tested on non-subscribers within the first hour, and that late-peaking and evergreen videos stay eligible (Creator Insider, September 2026). Judge a channel by its recent median views, never its subscriber count ([channel data](references/channel-data.md#channel-health)).\n2. **No single metric decides, and clicks are not the goal.** YouTube weighs click-through, watch time and viewer-satisfaction surveys differently by surface, and has published no weights. Its own Test & Compare picks the title or thumbnail with the most watch time, explicitly over CTR ([platform](references/platform.md#test--compare-picks-by-watch-time)).\n3. **CTR only means something in context.** Half of channels and videos sit between 2% and 10% impressions CTR (YouTube Help), and CTR falls naturally as impressions grow. A falling CTR on a video reaching the Home page is usually growth.\n4. **A view is no longer a watch.** Since 24 August 2026 a public view counts from the first frame on every format (Shorts since March 2025); CTR, retention, recommendations and monetisation still use engaged views. Public counts, the only views Manifold reads, are higher and mix two definitions across that date ([platform](references/platform.md#what-a-view-is-now)).\n5. **Mass-produced content loses money and reach.** The inauthentic-content rule (July 2025, clarified July 2026) bars templated, repetitive and AI-persona channels from earning; YouTube's 2026 priorities target their spread, and Shorts recommendations favour original content since October 2026. Using AI tools on a video with a real point of view is allowed ([platform](references/platform.md#mass-produced-content)).\n6. **Shorts are for reach, not revenue.** Up to three minutes; over 200 billion daily views; creators keep 45% of Shorts revenue against 55% on long-form. From February 2027 Shorts revenue needs 10 million views in 90 days, and new Partner Program applicants need 8,000 watch hours or 20 million Shorts views ([platform](references/platform.md#partner-program-thresholds)).\n7. **YouTube is the way into Google's AI answers.** It is the most-cited domain in AI Overviews (Ahrefs, March 2026), and the number of YouTube videos mentioning a brand correlates with its AI visibility more than any other signal tested (ρ about 0.74 across 75,000 brands, Ahrefs, December 2025; correlation). In Manifold's runs only Google's AI answers cited YouTube, not ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini or Perplexity ([AI answers](references/ai-answers.md)).\n8. **The videos Google's AI answers cite are small.** Of 14 cited in our October 2026 runs, 12 had under 3,100 views, 10 were uploaded in 2026, all were comparisons or \"best X\" lists naming the buyer's question, and only 5 ranked in YouTube's top 20 for the query. A brand with no audience can enter with one honest, current, chaptered comparison ([field notes](references/field-notes.md)).\n\n**Does not hold up:** \"the algorithm optimises for CTR\" (Test & Compare picks by watch time); \"subscribers see your uploads\"; \"Shorts max out at 60 seconds\"; \"AI-made videos can't be monetised\" (templated mass production can't; AI tools are fine); \"views mean people watched\" (not since August 2026); \"a video that ranks on YouTube or Google is the one AI Overviews cite\" (5 of 14 in our runs; rankings no longer predict AI Overview citations); \"judge a video by its first 48 hours\".\n\n**Unknown:** average view duration and retention benchmarks (YouTube publishes only the CTR band, and no large public study with a method was found); Test & Compare win rates; how Google picks the moment it cites in a video; whether being cited in an AI answer sends a video views; whether Shorts help or hurt a channel's long-form reach.\n\n## References\n\nOpen the one the question needs.\n\n| The user asks | Read |\n|---|---|\n| How does YouTube recommend videos now? What changed with views, Shorts, monetisation, Test & Compare, the Partner Program? | [Platform](references/platform.md) |\n| What do the tool fields mean? How do we judge a channel's health, an outlier, bought views? What can't the data see? | [Channel data](references/channel-data.md) |\n| Audit our channel or a competitor's; why did this one video take off? | [Audit](references/audit.md) |\n| Which videos should we make? Which topics are underserved? | [Video ideas](references/video-ideas.md) |\n| What do viewers ask and object to in the comments? | [Comments](references/comments.md) |\n| Which YouTube videos do AI answers and Google cite for our buyer questions, and how do we get into them? | [AI answers](references/ai-answers.md) |\n| Should we start a channel? We want a 90-day YouTube plan | [Strategy](references/strategy.md) |\n| What has Manifold seen in its own YouTube data? | [Field notes](references/field-notes.md) |\n\n## Using Manifold\n\n- **A channel:** `youtube_get_channel` for subscribers (the only tool that gives them), then `youtube_get_videos` for the latest page (about 30 videos) and with `sort: \"popular\"` for the hits. 1 credit each.\n- **A video:** `youtube_get_video` for likes, comments, exact upload time, description links and the paid flag `is_ad`; `youtube_get_transcript` for what is said (`NoData` means no captions); `youtube_get_comments` for comments, most liked first. 1 credit each, a page for comments.\n- **A topic:** `youtube_search_videos` with `since` for recency and `sort: \"popular\"` for views, 1 credit a page. Its dates are rounded from an age label, it does not mark Shorts, and it carries no likes, comments or paid flag.\n- **Demand and Google:** `seo_search_keywords` (10 credits for 100 rows) for Google volume, a proxy for YouTube demand to label as such; `seo_get_serp` (1 credit, 2 with `ai_overview: true`) for whether Google shows videos (`video` in `features`) and which YouTube URLs its AI Overview cites. AI answers on every engine: `aeo_run_ai_answers`, 27 credits a prompt (see [ai-search](../ai-search/SKILL.md)).\n- **Cheap but cached:** searches, listings, videos and comments 6 hours, channels 24 hours, transcripts 30 days; a repeat the same day is free. Pass `max_credits` when the user set a budget; `dry_run: true` prices any call.\n- **Never visible:** CTR, impressions, average view duration, retention, traffic sources and thumbnails. For the user's own channel, ask them to read YouTube Studio; for competitors, say they are unknown.\n- **Never upload, post, comment, subscribe or contact anyone.** Deliver tables and plans the user acts on.\n\n## Related skills\n\n- The other video and social platforms: [tiktok](../tiktok/SKILL.md), [instagram](../instagram/SKILL.md), [linkedin](../linkedin/SKILL.md), [facebook](../facebook/SKILL.md). Which channels to be on at all, and content ideas across them: [growth-strategy](../growth-strategy/SKILL.md).\n- Finding, sizing, vetting and briefing YouTube creators to sponsor: [creators](../creators/SKILL.md). Podcast guesting: [digital-pr](../digital-pr/SKILL.md). Contacts for a channel or site: [link-building](../link-building/SKILL.md).\n- AI answers on every engine, and how to measure them: [ai-search](../ai-search/SKILL.md). Videos ranking in Google and Google keyword data: [seo](../seo/SKILL.md).\n- A competitor's whole marketing and weekly watching: [competitor-intel](../competitor-intel/SKILL.md). Pains and objections across every source: [voice-of-customer](../voice-of-customer/SKILL.md). YouTube ads: [paid-ads](../paid-ads/SKILL.md).\n"
}