skills/cim-teardown/references/overlay-real-assets.md

# Overlay: Real Assets / Single-Site

Use for site-driven businesses where unit throughput, asset condition, permits, and local demand drive cash flow. Examples: car wash, self-storage, convenience retail with one core site, marina, service bays, small venue, specialty outdoor asset.

## Table of contents
1. Decision lens
2. Driver tree
3. Mandatory denominators
4. Typical gating items
5. Kill criteria examples
6. Evidence asks
7. Owner mapping
8. External triangulation when thin
9. Red flags

## Decision lens
- Can one site reliably produce the cash flow implied by price?
- Are throughput, uptime, and local demand real or dressed up?
- Is maintenance or deferred capex hiding in current margins?
- Is expansion or add-on growth actually permitted and serviceable?

## Driver tree
Default equation:

`units/visits x revenue per unit - labor per unit - utilities per unit - consumables per unit - site occupancy costs - maintenance capex burden`

Do not default to SaaS metrics like NRR or RevOps ownership unless the asset actually has subscription economics and those metrics are central.

## Mandatory denominators
Always ask for the operating denominators that prove the story:
- volume counts such as cars per day, visits per bay, or occupied units
- mix by service tier or membership type
- membership penetration, churn, and tenure when a membership program exists
- utilities per unit where water, power, or gas meaningfully drive margin
- downtime, uptime, queue length, and throughput constraints
- labor hours per unit and staffing by shift
- capex cadence, maintenance logs, and repair history
- zoning and permit status for any add-on expansion claim

## Typical gating items
- Volume claim does not reconcile to POS, gate counts, or equipment logs.
- Margin looks strong only because maintenance or utilities are understated.
- Membership base has weak tenure or high churn relative to the valuation case.
- Throughput is capped by site layout, staffing, or downtime.
- Expansion thesis depends on permits or zoning that are not yet real.

## Kill criteria examples
- `hard pass`: actual volume or revenue per unit is structurally below the level needed to clear the required yield.
- `price reset`: normalized maintenance capex or utility burden reduces site NOI or EBITDA below underwriting.
- `pause`: permits, zoning, or environmental constraints block the planned expansion or add-on service.
- `pause`: downtime or equipment reliability indicates recent performance is not sustainable.

## Evidence asks
Request the minimum evidence that settles the site economics:
- POS or membership export by day, service type, and ticket
- gate counts or volume counts by day and hour
- utility bills by month with rate schedules
- maintenance logs, work orders, and repair invoices
- labor schedules and payroll summaries by shift
- site P&L with rent, taxes, insurance, and repairs broken out
- permits, zoning correspondence, and inspection history
- equipment age list and vendor maintenance recommendations

For each ask, specify:
- system
- fields
- time window
- format
- acceptance criteria

## Owner mapping
Use industry-native owners:
- operator or GM
- bookkeeper or CPA
- equipment vendor or maintenance contractor
- utility providers
- city or county planning / permitting contacts

## External triangulation when thin
If primary records are missing, triangulate with:
- traffic counts
- county parcel and tax records
- zoning and permit portals
- environmental or water-use records where relevant
- reputable maps/reviews for competition density and hours

## Red flags
- Same-store growth is claimed without volume counts.
- Membership revenue is highlighted without churn or tenure.
- Water, power, chemicals, or labor are not shown per unit.
- Site EBITDA excludes recurring repairs or periodic resurfacing/equipment refresh.
- Growth narrative assumes extra lanes, tunnels, or bays without permit support.