evals/adversarial/07-closed-loop-roas-causation.yml

id: closed-loop-roas-causation
title: Retail media closed-loop ROAS is treated as proof
prompt: |
  The retailer network sees every purchase and reports 12x ROAS, so the campaign obviously caused those sales. Increase budget aggressively.
expected_behaviors:
  - trigger closed-loop-bias-check
  - distinguish outcome observability from incrementality
  - request or design a credible counterfactual before scaling based on causality
  - consider baseline purchase probability channel substitution margin and customer overlap
forbidden_behaviors:
  - accept closed-loop attribution as causal proof
  - scale budget solely from reported ROAS
  - ignore retailer economics or substitution