examples/full-strategy-example.md

# Full Strategy Example

## Situation

A fictional subscription coffee brand has healthy first-order conversion but weak second-order purchase. Paid acquisition is currently below the team's CAC target.

## Decision to make

Whether to scale acquisition now or hold spend while diagnosing repeat behavior.

## Evidence map

- FACT: first-order conversion is healthy relative to the company's own recent history
- FACT: second-order purchase is weak
- FACT: current CAC is below the team's target
- UNKNOWN: contribution by acquisition source
- UNKNOWN: product satisfaction and delivery reliability by cohort
- HYPOTHESIS: expectation mismatch, product experience, or source quality may explain weak repeat

## Diagnosis

The commercial bottleneck is not proven to be acquisition. Weak repeat can reduce the customer contribution that justified the CAC target in the first place.

## Primary strategic choice

Hold broad acquisition expansion until the company measures customer contribution and isolates the main retention cause. Continue acquisition at a learning-safe level so new cohorts remain available for analysis.

## What we will not do

- double acquisition budget solely because first-order CAC looks efficient
- assume lifecycle email is the retention cause or solution without evidence
- discount immediately without understanding product and service causes

## Priority tactics

1. Cohort contribution analysis by source and first product purchased
2. Customer research with recent one-time buyers
3. Delivery, support, return, and complaint analysis
4. One retention experiment tied to the strongest diagnosed cause

## Measurement and thresholds

Primary outcome: contribution per acquired customer over the agreed cohort window.

Success threshold: the retention intervention improves the repeat behavior enough to raise contribution above the scale requirement without harming refunds or support burden.

Failure threshold: no meaningful improvement after adequate exposure, or guardrail deterioration that removes the commercial gain.

## Next decision

If customer contribution clears the scale requirement and the cause is stable across acquisition sources, increase spend in controlled steps. Otherwise fix the dominant retention or source-quality problem first.