references/2026/causal-measurement-2026.md

# Causal Measurement Reset, 2026

Attribution is increasingly strained by privacy, signal loss, fragmented journeys, platform-embedded optimization, and delayed outcomes. Treat attribution as one observational input, not the final causal verdict.

## Decision implications

- Start from the business decision and the counterfactual required to support it.
- Escalate to holdouts, geo experiments, lift studies, MMM, or hybrid methods when platform attribution cannot answer the decision.
- Separate predicted future value from observed realized value.

## Sources

- `source:iab-state-data-2026`
- `source:google-meridian-ga360-2026`
- `source:meta-ai-ads-2026`