references/frameworks/measurement-tree.md

# Measurement Tree

Connect activity to business outcomes through a causal chain:

Business outcome -> customer behavior -> intermediate signal -> intervention

For each metric, state:
- whether it is a business outcome, behavioral outcome, leading indicator, diagnostic, or guardrail
- expected direction
- decision threshold
- time window
- known confounders

Do not treat impressions, engagement, clicks, or traffic as business success without a defined link to the commercial objective.