references/theories/closed-loop-bias.md

# Closed-Loop Bias

## Theory

Use this as an applied decision model, not as proof that the model is correct in every market.

## Use when

- When a platform can observe purchase outcomes in its own commerce environment.

## Mechanism

Separate observation coverage from causal impact; test organic demand, channel substitution, and exposure selection before claiming incrementality.

## Applied marketing use

Route the diagnosis to the specialist agents and skills connected in `neural/graph.json`; verify current platform facts using `references/2026/commerce-media-2026.md`.

## Failure modes

- Treating a current platform feature as a permanent law of marketing.
- Selecting the theory because it sounds modern rather than because it explains the observed constraint.

## Related principle

- `closed-loop-is-not-incrementality`

## Sources

- `source:iab-commerce-media-2026`
- `source:iab-commerce-incrementality-2025`