sector-models/M086-refiners.model.json

{
  "schema_version": "2.0.0",
  "module": "M086",
  "sector": "refiners",
  "canonical_playbook": "canonical/modules/M086-refiners-analyst-playbook.md",
  "required_kpis": [
    "throughput",
    "utilization",
    "crack_spread",
    "capture_rate",
    "opex_barrel",
    "RIN_cost",
    "inventory"
  ],
  "forecast_model": {
    "revenue": [
      "volume_or_units",
      "price_or_yield",
      "mix",
      "other_driver"
    ],
    "margin": [
      "gross_or_spread_driver",
      "fixed_cost_absorption",
      "mix",
      "normalization"
    ],
    "cash_flow": [
      "working_capital",
      "maintenance_capex",
      "growth_capex",
      "tax",
      "financing"
    ]
  },
  "definition_controls": [
    "period",
    "units",
    "currency",
    "geography",
    "product_mix",
    "GAAP_or_non_GAAP",
    "company_definition_change"
  ],
  "preferred_valuation_methods": [
    "midcycle_EV_EBITDA",
    "FCF_yield",
    "asset_value"
  ],
  "stress_variables": [
    "crack_spread",
    "turnaround",
    "capture",
    "working_capital"
  ],
  "required_outputs": [
    "historical_KPI_table",
    "definition_register",
    "driver_forecast",
    "valuation_cross_check",
    "reverse_expectations",
    "risk_register",
    "thesis_breaks",
    "source_map"
  ],
  "exit_gate": "All material KPIs, definitions, forecast drivers, valuation methods, stresses, and failure tests in the canonical playbook are addressed."
}