skills/evaluate-ad-investment/references/output-contract.md

# Advertising Investment Output Contract

## Contents

1. Missing-input behavior
2. Compact judgment
3. Full judgment
4. Decision states
5. Quality checks

## 1. Missing-input behavior

Ask no more than three decision-changing questions:

- What probability or timing is this advertising intended to change?
- What happens when spend stops, and over what horizon?
- What evidence or comparison exists beyond attributed media metrics?

If answers are unavailable, return a provisional classification and the smallest safe test. Do not invent return or thresholds.

## 2. Compact judgment

```text
Judgment:
Advertising class:
Probability or timing changed:
Why it qualifies or does not:
Primary return:
Evidence and uncertainty:
Next move:
Do not do:
```

## 3. Full judgment

```text
Decision: Increase / Continue / Small reversible test / Hold / Reduce / Stop or restore

Decision owner, scope, and deadline:
Product, market, and buying context:
Budget change:
Probability or timing changed:

Advertising class:
Operating tag:
Investment qualification:
Missing conditions:
Optimization or threshold-defense:

Current-value return:
Future or residual value:
Expected stopping behavior:
Evidence method and level:
Can conclude:
Cannot conclude:

Baseline:
Desired Signal:
Counter-signal:
Guardrail or safe floor:
Review window:
Action if crossed:

Recommended move:
What not to do:
Uncertainty and exceptions:
```

## 4. Decision states

- **Increase:** marginal return or future-state evidence supports cautious expansion.
- **Continue:** the investment thesis remains valid through the defined review window.
- **Small reversible test:** the thesis matters but uncertainty or threshold risk is material.
- **Hold:** the return, prerequisite structure, or measurement basis is missing.
- **Reduce:** expected value has weakened; contain exposure while preserving learning or recovery.
- **Stop or restore:** the action solves the wrong problem, expected value is negative, or a guardrail is breached.

## 5. Quality checks

- One primary probability or timing change is named.
- One primary advertising class is assigned or components are split.
- Current and future returns are not collapsed into one metric.
- The classification has explicit qualification conditions.
- Optimization and threshold-defense are distinguished.
- Attributed return is not called incremental without a counterfactual.
- Residual value has a mechanism, duration, and signal or is labeled unknown.
- Signal, counter-signal, guardrail, review window, and action are defined for consequential decisions.
- “What not to do” is specific.