skills/market-daily-strategist/references/cn-long-term.md

# A-Share Long-Term Recommendation

Use for `A股长线推荐`.

## Live Sources

Prioritize 东方财富、同花顺、雪球、财联社、新浪财经 and other reliable Chinese market/news sources.

## Selection Rules

- First verify whether the next mainland China trading session is open. If closed for weekend/holiday, state that briefly and do not force a recommendation.
- For a one-name request, select one A-share main-board stock or eligible ETF/LOF.
- Apply the user's eligible market/board restrictions; do not infer account permissions.
- 科创板/创业板 related ETF/LOF are allowed, such as 科创50 ETF、创业板ETF.
- Confirm the target can be bought on the next A-share trading day.
- Avoid recently recommended names when the history is available.
- Must show medium/long-term continuity plus confirmed trend or reversal signal and short-term upward momentum.
- Classify the target into one primary strategy archetype from `strategy-archetypes.md`. Pure event trades or crisis-beta rebounds qualify only when a durable medium/long-term thesis remains after the catalyst or normalization.
- Avoid pure left-side bottom fishing or no-momentum targets.
- State a currently executable entry or a clearly conditional limit; check market hours, latest price, spread and slippage.

## Required Analysis

Start from beta environment:

- Market strength/weakness, trend, sector strength, geopolitical or macro risk.

Then analyze:

- Technical reversal/trend signals, fundamentals, news/policy catalysts, sentiment recovery, industry outlook, short-term upward momentum, medium/long-term continuity.
- A-share specifics: 大盘指数、板块强弱、两融余额/融资买入、北向/主力资金、ETF资金流、龙虎榜/机构席位、限售解禁、股东减持、政策催化、成交额/换手率、筹码集中度、涨停/炸板/情绪周期.
- Thesis-aligned plan: primary archetype, why entry is valid now, nearby execution invalidation, slower thesis invalidation, time stop when relevant, and the exit condition tied to the same return source.

## Output Format

Start with a concise conclusion; the following title/section layout is a reusable example, subject to the user or Task format.

`信心度XX%：A股长线推荐：标的名称（代码，市场类型）——核心逻辑，买入价位X元，目标价位X-X元`

Suggested report sections:

1. 推荐标的概览（股票/ETF名称、代码、市场类型、当前买入价位、主要策略类型）。
2. 推荐核心原因（must start with current beta analysis: market strength/weakness, trend, sector strength, geopolitical or macro risk; then analyze technical reversal/trend signals, fundamentals, news/policy catalysts, sentiment recovery, industry outlook, short-term upward momentum and medium/long-term continuity）。
3. 买入策略（为什么现在进入、买入价位、suggested batch-buying method, whether it can be executed immediately on the next trading day, and execution invalidation）。
4. 目标价位与持有周期（specific target range, expected holding period, main upside catalysts, and thesis-consistent exit conditions）。
5. 风险提示（main downside risks, execution stop, long-term thesis invalidation, and time stop when relevant）。
6. 确定度及其证据；没有校准依据时不编造精确概率。

End or include clearly: `以上不是投资建议。`