skills/market-daily-strategist/references/jp-long-term.md

# Japan Long-Term Recommendation

Use for `日股长线推荐`.

## Live Sources

Prioritize kabutan.jp, finance.yahoo.co.jp, Japanese local financial media, トレーダーズ・ウェブ, みんかぶ. Use 日経, Yahoo! Japan Finance 掲示板, X, Reddit only when useful and label source type.

## Selection Rules

- First confirm whether the next Japan session is a trading day. If closed, state recommendation is paused and briefly explain why.
- For a one-name request, select one Japanese stock.
- Avoid recently recommended names when the history is available.
- Must show confirmed trend or reversal signal, short-term upward momentum, and medium/long-term continuity. Avoid pure left-side bottom fishing.
- Classify the target into one primary strategy archetype from `strategy-archetypes.md`. Pure event trades or crisis-beta rebounds qualify only when a durable medium/long-term thesis remains after the catalyst or normalization.
- State a currently executable entry or a clearly conditional limit; check market hours, latest price, spread and slippage.
- All price, PTS, earnings, valuation, 信用買残, institutional short selling, financing restrictions, warrant exercise, Evo Fund, and related data must come from reliable/latest sources.

## Required Analysis

Start from beta environment:

- Market strength/weakness, trend, sector strength, geopolitical risk, yen, rates, US-market linkage.

Then analyze:

- Technical reversal/trend signal, support/resistance, volume-price, RSI, MACD, KDJ, GMMA, Vegas-style channel, VWAP, Fibonacci, gaps, Japanese candlesticks.
- Sentiment cycle,资金流,信用买残,机构空卖,PTS price.
- Fundamentals, latest earnings, industry trend, reasonable valuation, news, target price, entry timing, risk management.
- Thesis-aligned plan: primary archetype, why entry is valid now, nearby execution invalidation, slower thesis invalidation, time stop when relevant, and the exit condition tied to the same return source.

## Output Format

Start with a concise conclusion; the following title/section layout is a reusable example, subject to the user or Task format.

`信心度XX%：日股长线推荐……`

The title must include stock name, code, core logic, buy price, and target price.

Suggested report sections:

1. 推荐股票概览，包含主要策略类型。
2. 推荐核心原因，必须先分析当前 beta 情况，包括大盘强弱、趋势、板块强弱、地缘风险等宏观环境，再从技术面反转或趋势信号、基本面改善、消息面或政策面催化、情绪面回暖、行业预期等维度拆解。
3. 买入策略，包括为什么现在进入、买入价位、分批方式、次日是否可立即执行和执行失效位。
4. 目标价位与持有周期，包括目标区间、预期持有周期、主要上行催化剂和同逻辑退出条件。
5. 风险提示，包括主要下行风险、执行止损、长期逻辑失效和适用时的时间止损。
6. 信心度。

End or include clearly: `以上不是投资建议。`