skills/market-daily-strategist/references/us-long-term.md

# US Long-Term Recommendation

Use for `美股长线推荐`.

## Live Sources

Prioritize Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg, TradingView, CNBC, MarketWatch. Avoid low-quality blogs. Social media can be used only as labeled sentiment.

## Selection Rules

- For a one-name request, select one US stock.
- Avoid recently recommended names when the history is available.
- The stock must have medium/long-term continuity plus confirmed trend or reversal signal and near-term upward momentum.
- Classify the target into one primary strategy archetype from `strategy-archetypes.md`. Pure event trades or crisis-beta rebounds qualify only when a durable medium/long-term thesis remains after the catalyst or normalization.
- State a currently executable entry or a clearly conditional limit; check market hours, latest price, spread and slippage.
- If the regular US session has not opened, clearly say the price is pre-market or latest available, not regular-session live price.

## Required Analysis

Start from beta environment:

- Major index strength/weakness, trend, sector strength, geopolitical risk, volatility, options/gamma environment.

Then analyze:

- Technical trend/reversal signal, support/resistance, volume-price relationship, moving averages, MA144, Vegas-style channels, MACD, KDJ, RSI, GMMA, VWAP, Fibonacci, gaps, Japanese candlestick patterns, Wyckoff structure, sentiment cycle.
- Fundamentals, industry cycle, news/policy catalyst, institutional holding, short interest, options put/call ratio, gamma wall, buybacks, lock-up expiry.
- Thesis-aligned plan: primary archetype, why entry is valid now, nearby execution invalidation, slower thesis invalidation, time stop when relevant, and the exit condition tied to the same return source.

## Output Format

Start with a concise conclusion; the following title/section layout is a reusable example, subject to the user or Task format.

`信心度XX%：美股长线推荐……`

The title must include stock name/code, core logic, buy price, and target price.

Suggested report sections:

1. 推荐股票概览（股票名称、代码、当前买入价位、主要策略类型）。
2. 推荐核心原因（先分析 beta 环境，再拆解短期向上动能与中长线持续性）。
3. 买入策略（为什么现在进入、买入价位、分批方式、当天是否可立即执行、执行失效位）。
4. 目标价位与持有周期（具体目标价位区间、预期持有周期、主要上行催化剂、同逻辑退出条件）。
5. 风险提示（主要下行风险、执行止损、长期逻辑失效及时间止损如适用）。
6. 确定度及其证据；没有校准依据时不编造精确概率。

End or include clearly: `以上不是投资建议。`