skills/stock-sentiment-analysis/references/sentiment-framework.md

# Sentiment Framework

This reference is distilled into public-safe, reusable rules. It intentionally omits private source paths, personal labels, raw passages, and ticker-specific trade logs.

## 1. Evidence Priority

Use this order:

1. Confirmed catalysts: filings, announcements, earnings, guidance, orders, policy documents, credible news, analyst revisions.
2. Market structure: index trend, sector breadth, board/concept rank, advance-decline, limit-up/limit-down, futures/volatility, rates and FX.
3. Peer confirmation: leaders, followers, laggards, same-theme breadth, cross-market analogs.
4. Forum and social heat: useful for expectation gap and crowding, not proof.
5. Price/volume: validates or rejects the story.

## 2. Expectation Gap

For each catalyst ask:

- What did the market already expect?
- What actually landed?
- Was it above expectation, merely in line, below expectation, or irrelevant to the market's real worry?
- Did price accept the news by holding/reclaiming key levels, or reject it through high-volume failure?

A positive headline can be bearish if it is smaller, slower, less certain, or already priced. A modest headline can be bullish if expectations were fearful.

## 3. Emotion Type

Classify the stock before judging signals:

- `情绪票`: topic-driven, high volatility, limit-up or gap-chasing behavior, fast crowding and fast retreat.
- `趋势票`: supported by industry cycle, earnings, policy, orders, cash flow, or institutional ownership; slower and more durable.
- `Hybrid`: a real fundamental story temporarily traded like an emotion stock.

Do not use the same rules for all three. 情绪票 needs faster invalidation and stronger attention to crowding; 趋势票 gives more weight to higher-timeframe supports, guidance, orders, and institutional accumulation/distribution.

## 4. A-Share Emotion Cycle

Use seven stages when A-share breadth and theme data are available:

1. `冰点期`: loss effect dominates, many large losers/limit-downs, low participation. Watch who resists.
2. `修复/潜伏期`: panic fades, front-row names stabilize, skepticism remains.
3. `启动期`: new theme or first boards appear; participation starts but is not crowded.
4. `加速期`: leaders continue, followers broaden,赚钱效应 improves.
5. `高潮期`: broad discussion, limit-up wave, one-word boards, retail euphoria.
6. `高位分歧/分化期`: leaders wobble, back row weakens, long upper shadows or failed boards appear.
7. `退潮期`: leaders break, failed-board/亏钱效应 spreads, defensive behavior rises.

A disagreement early in a cycle can be healthy turnover. A disagreement after climax is usually distribution risk.

## 5. Leader And Theme Quality

A strong theme needs repeated capital return, breadth, and peer follow-through. Judge:

- Is the stock a leader, same-theme follower, defensive/cyclical alternative, old-leader rebound, or noise?
- Are leaders making new highs while followers also improve, or is only one famous name holding the tape?
- Is volume expanding with price progress, or expanding without progress?
- Are pullbacks shallow and supported, or are rebounds just exit liquidity?

Do not pre-commit to a theme winner. Let price reaction, guidance surprise, peer confirmation, breadth, and expectation reset decide.

## 6. Market-Sector-Stock Resonance And Continuation

When the user asks whether a collective sector surge can continue, or whether a stock is rising with a durable main line, use this six-factor mnemonic:

`强大盘 + 高成交 + 上涨家数多 + 完整产业链扩散 + 基本面持续验证 + 非末端加速`

Interpret the six factors as follows:

1. `Broad-market support`: the relevant index/style and overall risk appetite support the move. A green index alone is insufficient; check breadth, intraday acceptance, volatility, and whether the matching growth/value/small-cap style is actually leading.
2. `Liquidity and turnover`: absolute turnover is sufficient and, preferably, incremental turnover or identifiable fresh flow is entering. High turnover with little price progress can instead mean churn or distribution.
3. `Broad participation`: market and sector advance/decline breadth, profit effect, limit-up/new-high participation, and follower quality confirm that the move is not carried by one or two leaders.
4. `Industry-chain diffusion`: upstream, midstream, downstream, equipment, materials, applications, large caps, and smaller high-beta names participate where relevant. Cross-market or cross-asset peers provide stronger confirmation than a single local-market spike.
5. `Continuing fundamental validation`: orders, earnings revisions, guidance, prices, supply-demand, capex, policy execution, adoption, or cash-flow evidence can be checked again after the first headline. A vague one-off slogan is weaker.
6. `Lifecycle is not terminal acceleration`: locate the move before judging it. First repricing or a breakout after consolidation is healthier than a late limit-up wave, parabolic extension, one-sided certainty, or good news that no longer produces price progress.

Do not convert this into a mechanical equal-weight score or a claimed probability. The factors interact, and late-cycle acceleration can override otherwise strong market, turnover, and breadth conditions. Conversely, a genuine new main line can begin against a mediocre broad market, but it then needs stronger relative strength, repeated capital return, and follow-through.

Always separate three conclusions:

- `Logic durability`: whether the industry, policy, earnings, order, or adoption thesis can persist.
- `Tape continuity`: whether breadth, liquidity, leaders, followers, and price acceptance support another leg.
- `Entry quality`: whether the current point is early/healthy enough for new risk, or mainly favorable to existing holders.

Apply the same structure across markets, but translate the evidence:

- A-shares: index/style, total turnover, advance/decline, limit-up and failed-board structure, board/industry-chain breadth, fund-flow concentration, policy/orders, and emotion-cycle phase.
- U.S. stocks: index and equal-weight breadth, rates/dollar/volatility, cash and ETF/options flows, earnings-revision breadth, leader/peer confirmation, and whether the move is earnings-led or gamma/short-covering-led.
- Japanese stocks: Nikkei/TOPIX and sector breadth, yen/JGB/foreign-flow context, turnover, exporters/domestic-demand or supply-chain confirmation, orders/guidance, and global-cycle positioning.

For an individual stock, finish with a three-level resonance judgment: `market -> sector/theme -> stock`. A durable sector does not rescue a weak follower; require the stock to show leadership or at least acceptable relative strength, volume-price confirmation, and a stock-specific thesis that is not already exhausted.

## 7. Top And De-Risking Clues

Emotion-top clues:

- high attention plus continuous large candles;
- high turnover without price progress;
- failed breakout, long upper shadow, gap-up fade;
- failed board/断板/炸板 or repeated intraday rejection;
- followers weakening while leaders still look strong;
- forum language becoming one-sided and certain.

Trend-top clues:

- good news stops moving price;
- valuation stretch meets weaker forward guidance;
- high-level sideways action with shrinking volume;
- key moving average or box support breaks and cannot be reclaimed;
- sector breadth rolls over before the leader.

## 8. Cross-Market Sentiment

For US/Japan/Korea/Europe or index futures, emotion often transmits through rates, FX, volatility, and crowded positioning. Check:

- rates/yields: higher discount rate pressures long-duration growth;
- FX: yen or dollar moves can change exporter and risk appetite reads;
- volatility indexes: rising volatility during an index rise signals unstable chase;
- options/gamma: walls, flip levels, and short-gamma regimes can amplify moves;
- crowded AI/semiconductor/robotics themes: strong stories can still de-risk together.

## 9. Technical Confirmation Interface

Sentiment analysis should call technical analysis when price location matters:

- 1h+ or swing judgments require chart confirmation, not just headline/forum heat.
- A breakout needs a hold/retest with volume, not a one-wick touch.
- A support defense matters only if price reclaims short-term structure.
- A theme can remain alive after first rejection if higher lows form and reclaimed support holds.

## 10. Mainline, Funds, Game, Cycle Lens

Source lens: 招商证券策略研究《主线·资金·博弈·周期：A股投资的底层逻辑与系统奥义——A股投资启示录》, republished by 新浪财经, 2026-06-03.
URL: https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2026-06-03/doc-iniaecsk0758056.shtml

The source report is A-share focused, but the sentiment logic is useful globally when adapted to local market structure. Use it to prevent over-attributing a move to headlines or forum heat.

Do not wait for the user to ask for this lens explicitly. During decomposition, if a stock, index, or theme move may be driven by durable narrative, liquidity, crowding, market mechanism, or cycle phase, apply the relevant parts of this section.

### Reading Scope

For narrow questions, read the relevant subsection and nearby guardrails. For broad market, theme, or cycle questions, read this full section. Do not rely only on memory or headings.

### Four Dimensions

Classify the narrative through four dimensions:

- `Mainline`: Is this a durable industry, technology, macro, policy, or profit-pool transition, or only a short-lived story?
- `Funds`: Is fresh capital still entering, or is the move running on crowded positioning, forced chase, or temporary liquidity?
- `Game`: Which mechanism is amplifying the move: retail heat, institutional rebalance, options/gamma, ETF/index flows, policy feedback, short squeeze, margin pressure, or forced de-risking?
- `Cycle`: Is the theme in recognition, emergence, expansion, divergence, climax, retreat, or reset?

### Cognitive Repricing

Markets often move when collective recognition changes, not only when a fact appears. Treat sentiment as a repricing process:

- old narrative loses pricing power;
- new narrative gets evidence;
- leaders prove the story through price and volume;
- followers and peers either confirm or reject the move;
- capital either returns after pullbacks or leaves after the first excitement.

This helps explain why a good headline can fail if it was priced in, and why a modest headline can work when expectations were fearful.

### Mainline Versus Emotion

Use this matrix:

- Strong mainline + supportive funds + broad peer confirmation = healthy expansion is possible.
- Strong mainline + weak funds = story may be right but the trade can remain choppy or fail temporarily.
- Weak mainline + abundant funds = speculative rotation; demand faster invalidation.
- Strong story + one-sided confidence + weakening breadth = late-cycle crowding risk.
- Good news that no longer lifts price = expectations may be saturated.
- Leader holds while followers fail = possible distribution or narrow defensive hiding.

### Funds And Positioning

For sentiment work, funds are not only macro liquidity. Check:

- who is buying now;
- whether the move depends on short covering, options gamma, margin, ETF/index flow, or retail chase;
- whether volume expands with progress or only with churn;
- whether pullbacks attract new buyers or merely produce weak rebounds;
- whether a competing theme is draining attention.

### Cycle Mapping

Map the sentiment phase before judging continuation:

1. `Recognition`: discussion starts, evidence is early, skepticism remains.
2. `Emergence`: leaders resist weakness and the theme starts to outperform.
3. `Expansion`: followers broaden, pullbacks are bought, and news/price reinforce each other.
4. `Divergence`: leaders still look strong, but breadth, volume-price quality, or expectation gap worsens.
5. `Climax`: attention becomes one-sided, late followers spike, and price becomes fragile.
6. `Retreat/Reset`: leaders break, loss effect spreads, and the old story becomes research material.

Early disagreement can be healthy turnover. Late disagreement after euphoria is usually risk.

### Market Adaptation

For A-shares, map this to policy/theme breadth, limit-up structure, 股吧 heat, sector-board confirmation, turnover, and fund-flow concentration.

For U.S. stocks, map this to earnings revisions, rates, mega-cap/index concentration, ETF flows, options/gamma, buybacks, short interest, and whether guidance is accepted.

For Japanese stocks, map this to yen, foreign flows, shareholder-return reform, exporters, banks, semiconductors, and global cycle exposure.

### Output Translation

When answering, translate the lens into compact conclusions:

1. `主线`: real leader, follower, old-leader rebound, defensive substitute, or noise.
2. `资金`: fresh inflow, crowded chase, liquidity squeeze, forced covering, or de-risking.
3. `博弈`: what mechanism explains the speed and volatility of the move.
4. `周期`: recognition, emergence, expansion, divergence, climax, or retreat.
5. `验证/失效`: what price, breadth, news, or flow evidence changes the classification.