examples/calibrate-synthetic.json

{
  "evaluation_date": "2026-09-15",
  "vintage_policy": "One synthetic snapshot per event, comparable lead time",
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "event_id": "A",
      "question": "Synthetic occurrence by deadline",
      "forecast_date": "2025-01-01",
      "deadline": "2026-01-01",
      "resolution_rule": "Synthetic occurrence record",
      "probability": 0.8,
      "outcome": 1,
      "resolved_on": "2026-01-02",
      "resolution_source": "Synthetic record",
      "baseline_probability": 0.5
    },
    {
      "event_id": "B",
      "question": "Synthetic occurrence by deadline",
      "forecast_date": "2025-01-01",
      "deadline": "2026-01-01",
      "resolution_rule": "Synthetic occurrence record",
      "probability": 0.4,
      "outcome": 0,
      "resolved_on": "2026-01-02",
      "resolution_source": "Synthetic record",
      "baseline_probability": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "example_notice": "SYNTHETIC TEST DATA ONLY. Not an actual forecast, market estimate, or validated rating."
}