skills/horizon-forecast/templates/report.md

# [Topic]: economic outlook and overlooked opportunities

**As of:** [date] · **Scope:** [geography/segments] · **Forecast endpoints:** [dates]

## Executive assessment

Give the main conclusion, leading fields, strongest overlooked opportunity, biggest uncertainty, and what would change the answer. Separate industry growth from returns or social benefit. Include a concise evidence-confidence statement.

## Ranking at a glance

| Tier/rank | Defined field | Growth /100 | Overlooked /100 | Confidence | Baseline annual size | Scenario annual size at endpoint | Added annual size | Expansion-event probability | Key constraint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

State currency, units, price year, metric, event threshold, and whether ranges are scenarios. Split horizons if necessary for readability. Put missing-data bounds and low-confidence candidates in a separate provisional table. Never use a dash that obscures whether a value is unknown, inapplicable, or not estimated.

## Scope, research plan, and coverage

Summarize the executed procedure, sector universe, exclusions, actual agent roles, date coverage, and source limitations. Explain any changes from the initial plan and why they mattered.

## The forces that connect these fields

Present the key causal links, regional distinctions, common dependencies, bottlenecks, substitutes, and material second-order effects. Include a compact dependency diagram or matrix only if it clarifies the analysis. Explain correlated risks across apparently diverse opportunities.

## Detailed field assessments

For each finalist, provide:

1. Exact market boundary, buyer, budget, and present baseline.
2. Growth thesis with causal mechanism and evidence cited near claims.
3. Base-rate/reference-class comparison, including a failure analogue and limitations.
4. Bottom-up economic logic, top-down check, adoption and supply constraints.
5. Near-term signposts, primary-horizon scenarios, and longer-term optionality.
6. Overlooked niches and the evidence of neglect; distinguish a legitimate reason for low investment.
7. Likely beneficiaries and distribution of economic value, including competition and displacement.
8. Strongest counterargument, thesis-killing condition, and unresolved evidence.
9. Dimension-level ratings, evidence-confidence explanation, event probability if defensible, and reversal sensitivity.

Give more space to consequential or uncertain finalists. Avoid repeating the same generic risks in every assessment.

## Scenarios and ranking robustness

Show coherent scenarios and their assumptions. If weighted, explain the outcome partition and probability basis. Distinguish expected size from central-case size and CAGR of expected size from expected CAGR. Show weight and economic-input sensitivities, near ties, shared shocks, and unstable rankings.

## What did not make the shortlist

Explain why attractive candidates were excluded, demoted, or deferred, with evidence. Include weak-signal watchlist items without giving them the same status as established findings.

## Forecast register and update triggers

Show the most decision-relevant dated predictions and measurable signposts. Specify sources, trigger levels, expected dates, and whether new information would strengthen, weaken, or reverse a thesis. Do not imply monitoring has been scheduled unless it has.

## Practical next steps

Recommend a few research or diligence actions that reduce the largest remaining uncertainty. Tailor implications to the user's purpose without inventing an investment mandate.

## Methods, sources, and limitations

Link the actual research plan, evidence ledger, assumptions, calculations, and disagreement record. State what was verified, what is judgment, what remains unknown, and which scores are heuristic. Distinguish process checks from measured forecasting performance.