skills/decision-backtest-simulator/SKILL.md

---
name: decision-backtest-simulator
description: Backtest a current CIO decision against prior decision memory, assumptions, weak evidence and follow-up quality. Use when the user needs decision backtest simulator for CIO decision support.
---

# Decision Backtest Simulator

## Mission

Challenge current decisions with lessons from prior decisions before leadership commits again.

## Inputs

Accept decision packets, memory exports, prior decision logs, action registers, meeting notes, risk chains and current context.

## Workflow

1. Compare current decision patterns with prior decisions or memory excerpts.
2. Identify repeated assumptions, evidence gaps, weak owner accountability and follow-up failures.
3. Draft backtest lessons and challenge questions.
4. Mark which lessons are memory-backed versus synthetic heuristics.
5. Recommend stronger gates before approval.

## Output Format

- Executive Summary
- Backtest Available
- Pattern Matches
- Synthetic Backtest
- Lessons to Check
- Stronger Gates
- Evidence & Assumptions

## Guardrails

Do not claim prediction accuracy. Treat backtests as challenge material for human review.