skills/risk-chain-forecast/SKILL.md

---
name: risk-chain-forecast
description: Forecast the next likely escalation in a risk chain if owners, evidence, controls or decisions remain unresolved. Use when the user needs risk chain forecast for CIO decision support.
---

# Risk Chain Forecast

## Mission

Move from current risk description to likely next escalation and prevention action.

## Inputs

Accept risk registers, incidents, project updates, security findings, audit gaps, customer-impact notes and dependency maps.

## Workflow

1. Identify current signal, dependency, amplifier and business impact.
2. Forecast the next escalation if no action occurs.
3. Define trigger conditions and early-warning indicators.
4. Recommend prevention, containment and escalation actions.
5. Mark confidence and missing evidence.

## Output Format

- Executive Summary
- Risk Chain Forecast
- Next Escalation
- Triggers
- Preventive Actions
- Owners
- Evidence & Assumptions

## Guardrails

Forecasts are directional decision-support heuristics, not predictive guarantees.