canonical/appendices/Appendix-I-earnings-preview-post-earnings-template.md

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<!-- Appendix: I | Title: EARNINGS PREVIEW / POST-EARNINGS TEMPLATE -->

# APPENDIX I - EARNINGS PREVIEW / POST-EARNINGS TEMPLATE

## Before the print

- Freeze the pre-earnings model and timestamp market price/consensus context.

- Write the three decision variables that matter most and the expected value/range for each.

- Define reaction cases based on operating drivers, not EPS beat/miss alone.

- List thesis-break evidence and what would be noise.

## After the print

- Reconcile reported statements to filing/source before changing forecasts.

- Bridge revenue by price/volume/mix or the appropriate business driver.

- Bridge margin by price/cost/mix/utilization and recurring versus temporary items.

- Reconcile working capital, capex, cash, debt, shares, taxes, and guidance.

- Update the model-change log with old/new assumptions and valuation effect.

- Compare actual outcome with the precommitted expectation and record forecast error.

## Call/transcript review

- Separate prepared narrative from Q&A evidence.

- Track changes in wording, KPI emphasis, definition, confidence, and time horizon.

- Do not treat management explanation as verified until it reconciles numerically or with external evidence.



## Required pre-earnings control sheet

- Freeze a timestamped model and record company guidance, consensus, market price, option-implied move if available, and the analyst range for the three variables that matter most.

- For each key variable write: expected range, bull threshold, bear threshold, source, accounting definition, and valuation sensitivity. Do not use EPS alone as the key variable when the business is driven by units, ARR, NIM, loss ratio, utilization, backlog, or another native KPI.

- Pre-write the bull, base, bear and thesis-break operating cases so the analyst cannot move the goalposts after the print.

## Surprise bridge

- Revenue surprise = reported revenue minus frozen-model revenue. Rebuild the difference through the native driver bridge, such as units x price x mix, beginning ARR + new - churn +/- expansion, or earning assets x spread.

- Margin surprise = price/mix + volume/utilization + variable cost + fixed-cost absorption + one-time/accounting items. Identify the residual rather than labeling the entire difference execution.

- FCF surprise = EBITDA/operating-profit surprise + working-capital difference + cash taxes + capex + restructuring/acquisition cash + other financing/operating differences.

- Guidance surprise = compare the new range with the prior implied quarterly path, not only with the prior midpoint.

## First 120 minutes after the release

- 0-20 minutes: capture filed statements and release, verify units/definitions, reconcile headline numbers and identify only the decision-relevant deltas.

- 20-60 minutes: rebuild driver, margin, cash and guidance bridges; update scenarios without changing long-term assumptions that the new evidence did not address.

- 60-120 minutes: review call/Q&A, update the assumption register, quantify valuation changes, classify each change as structural, cyclical, timing, accounting, or one-time, and write the post-earnings conclusion.

- After 120 minutes: perform source QA, compare actuals with precommitted expectations, log forecast errors, and decide whether the thesis, only the numbers, or neither changed.

## Reaction matrix

- Good print / stronger thesis: operating driver and cash corroborate; long-term value increases for an economic reason.

- Good print / weaker thesis: headline beats but quality, working capital, retention, reserves, backlog, unit economics, or forward indicators deteriorate.

- Bad print / intact thesis: miss is timing/noise and the causal driver remains within the precommitted range.

- Bad print / broken thesis: a predeclared falsification condition is met. Do not protect the prior target by extending the horizon or changing the metric.

## Post-earnings exit standard

The update is complete only when reported results tie to primary sources, the surprise is decomposed into economic drivers, the frozen-model forecast error is logged, the valuation impact is quantified, and the analyst explicitly states whether the thesis strengthened, weakened, broke, or remained unchanged.