skills/economic-impact-report/references/report-template.md

# Public Equity Economic Impact Report Template

Use this full structure by default. Shorter or narrower output requires explicit user wording such as summary, quick read, one-pager, brief, TL;DR, or a single requested section.

```markdown
# [Event Title]: Public Equity Impact

## Executive Call
[One tight paragraph: what happened, what is genuinely new, why it matters for listed equities, the primary transmission channel, what reprices first, and the highest-conviction issuer/sector/portfolio implication.]

## Event Status And Market Baseline
- Event status: confirmed / reported / assumed scenario / disputed / unresolved
- Key event evidence and timestamp:
- Research cut-off: include exact time and time zone when material intraday observations inform the report
- Relevant market observation: identify benchmark and, when relevant, spot vs futures, contract/month, intraday vs close, timestamp, and source
- What is already in the starting price or consensus:
- Material verification gaps:

## Source And Freshness
- Data cut-off:
- Sources used:
- Evidence posture: decision-grade / research-grade / preliminary / assumption-led / not supportable
- Stale or missing data: none material, or list gaps and keep the report in draft mode
- Source conflicts:

## Public Equity Bottom Line
- Most exposed long candidates:
- Most exposed short/avoid candidates:
- Sector or peer-group read-through:
- Portfolio action posture: add / press / hold / trim / exit / hedge / watchlist / pass / wait for proof / re-underwrite
- If no portfolio/watchlist was provided: portfolio-specific action unavailable; use general exposure map, watchlist, research queue, wait for proof, pass, or re-underwrite candidate.
- What is probably already priced:
- What may still be mispriced:

## General Exposure Map If No Portfolio Was Provided
| Exposure bucket | Industries / countries / currencies / companies / commodities affected | Public-equity mechanism | First estimate or valuation line affected | Positioning / flow read-through | Next workflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## What Is New Vs. Expected
- Baseline / consensus before event:
- Genuine delta:
- Why the delta matters for equities:
- What looks stale, background, or already known:

## Why Now
- Immediate vs near-term vs medium-term vs structural:
- Likely repricing sequence:
- What should fade vs persist:

## Event-To-Equity Transmission Map
### Transmission Map
1. [Event] -> [channel] -> [issuer/sector driver] -> [financial line item] -> [stock/portfolio implication]
2. [Event] -> [channel] -> [issuer/sector driver] -> [financial line item] -> [stock/portfolio implication]
3. [Event] -> [channel] -> [issuer/sector driver] -> [financial line item] -> [stock/portfolio implication]

## Ranked Equity Impact Map
### Issuer And Sector Impact
Label named issuers as representative exposure candidates or research-queue names unless company-specific evidence supports a security-level conclusion.
Combine exposures in one row only when they share the same transmission channel, first affected line item, and directional read-through; otherwise split them into separate candidates.

| Rank | Issuer / sector candidate | Direction | Directness | Mechanism | First line item affected | Timing | Confidence | Priced-in status | Research / PM action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## Earnings, Valuation, And Positioning Read-Through
- Estimate revision path:
- Margin / FCF / balance-sheet impact:
- Valuation or multiple implication:
- Factor, benchmark, ETF/index, ownership, crowding, liquidity, or short-interest implication:
- Credit, rates, FX, commodity, volatility, or futures signal used as public-equity input:

## Public Equity Framing
- What the equity market is likely to care about first:
- Where consensus may be stale:
- Where the obvious trade may be crowded or noisy:
- Best equity expression:
- Non-equity signal to monitor, if relevant:

## What Is Priced In Vs. What Requires Proof
- What appears reflected in current equity or commodity pricing:
- Primary priced-in evidence from affected equities/sectors, estimate revisions, valuation movement, or the relevant transmission market:
- Broad-index context, if used, clearly labeled as supporting rather than primary evidence:
- What remains an inference or scenario:
- What evidence would support an estimate revision or multiple change:
- What evidence would reverse or weaken the screen:

## Second-, Third-, And Fourth-Order Equity Effects
### Second-order
- ...
### Third-order
- ...
### Fourth-order
- ...

## Strongest Counterargument
- Counter-thesis:
- Why it could be right:
- Why it is weaker, later, already priced, or unresolved:

## Scenario Matrix
### Base Case ([x]%)
- Assumptions:
- Equity consequences:
- What moves most:

### Upside / Bull Case ([x]%)
- Assumptions:
- Equity consequences:
- What moves differently:

### Downside / Bear Case ([x]%)
- Assumptions:
- Equity consequences:
- What moves differently:

## Monitoring Triggers And Research Queue
- Specific datapoints, filings, economic releases, management commentary, policy decisions, market signals, estimate revisions, and positioning signals that would invalidate or materially revise the thesis.
- Research queue: convert representative exposure candidates into security-level work only after obtaining the relevant issuer evidence.

## What Would Change The View
- State the specific evidence threshold that invalidates or materially revises the thesis and the action posture it would change.

## Bottom-Line Judgment
- What matters most:
- What is noise:
- What is actionable now:
- What deserves continued monitoring:
- Recommended next Public Equity Investing workflow:
```

For standalone HTML reports, keep the first-read layer compact: `Executive Call`, `Event Status And Market Baseline`, the transmission map, and ranked equity impact map should be visible before detailed scenario, monitoring, and source-ledger material. Cite load-bearing facts near use, but prefer a short section-level source note over repeated source chips in every adjacent module.