skills/capital-markets-issuance/references/market-window.md

# Market-window assessment

Use this reference when advising whether to launch, wait, prepare, switch instruments, or run a dual-track process.

## Table Of Contents

- [Principle](#principle)
- [Inputs to gather](#inputs-to-gather)
- [Window ratings](#window-ratings)
- [Launch trigger template](#launch-trigger-template)
- [MD-level language](#md-level-language)

## Principle
The market window is not generic. State whether the window is open for this issuer, this instrument, this size, this use of proceeds, and this timing.

## Inputs to gather

### Macro and cross-asset
- rates direction and treasury curve;
- inflation and central-bank calendar;
- economic data releases;
- equity index levels and volatility;
- credit spreads and default expectations;
- fx and commodities if relevant;
- geopolitical or regulatory events;
- holiday and seasonal liquidity effects.

### ECM technicals
- issuer and peer share-price performance;
- valuation versus history and peers;
- volatility, short interest, adv, free float;
- ipo/follow-on/block calendar;
- recent deal pricing and aftermarket performance;
- equity fund flows and sector sentiment;
- earnings/catalyst/blackout calendar;
- analyst revisions and guidance credibility.

### DCM technicals
- benchmark rates and curve shape;
- ig/hy/loan spreads;
- new issue concessions;
- fund flows and investor cash;
- clo formation and loan demand;
- recent issuance and secondary performance;
- rating category and sector appetite;
- maturity wall/refinancing calendar;
- competing supply.

### Issuer-specific timing
- earnings/reporting calendar;
- pending m&a or regulatory events;
- rating agency process;
- board approval dates;
- shelf/filing readiness;
- debt maturity or liquidity deadline;
- sponsor exit timing;
- potential mnpi or disclosure constraints.

## Window ratings

### Open
Use when the issuer can likely access the target market on acceptable terms with normal execution risk.

Required support:
- relevant recent deals clearing well;
- issuer-specific story clean;
- investor base receptive;
- no imminent negative catalyst;
- size and terms are within realistic market capacity.

### Open but selective
Use when markets are functioning but buyer appetite is quality-, size-, sector-, or terms-dependent.

Typical language:
- "open for high-quality issuers but not broad risk";
- "open for refinancing but not opportunistic leverage";
- "open for small primary equity raise, not large secondary selldown";
- "open with anchor demand and disciplined sizing".

### Conditional
Use when the issuer should prepare but wait for specific triggers.

Common conditions:
- post-earnings guidance reaffirmation;
- rating agency confirmation;
- stock above support/vwap threshold;
- spreads inside target range;
- volatility below threshold;
- anchor investor feedback;
- competing calendar clears.

### Closed for this issuer/instrument
Use when pricing would likely be punitive, demand fragile, or strategic signaling negative.

Fallbacks:
- smaller transaction;
- alternate instrument;
- private credit/private placement;
- bridge/revolver;
- delayed launch;
- asset sale or internal funding;
- restructuring alternatives if stressed.

### Urgent despite poor window
Use when capital need outweighs market cost.

Required analysis:
- what happens if issuer waits;
- minimum viable raise;
- most certain instrument;
- investor/lender of last resort;
- cost of delay versus cost of issuance;
- communications strategy.

## Launch trigger template
Include specific go/no-go triggers:

| Trigger | Go condition | No-go condition | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| equity volatility | below target range | spikes above threshold | delay or shrink size |
| credit spreads | stable/tighter vs comps | widening materially | widen price talk or pause |
| earnings | guidance reaffirmed | miss/guide down | defer or change story |
| investor feedback | anchors support base size | demand price-sensitive | downsize or switch structure |
| competing calendar | limited sector supply | crowded calendar | move timing |

## MD-level language
Avoid saying "markets are favorable" without specificity. Say:
- "markets are open for refinancing but not incremental leverage";
- "ecm window is open only if launched after guidance reaffirmation";
- "hy window is technically open, but terms would likely require unacceptable concession";
- "private credit is the more certain path given calendar and sector volatility";
- "prepare now, launch only if anchor feedback supports base size".