skills/cim-teardown/references/overlay-consumer-retail.md

# Overlay: Consumer / Retail

Use for store-based, brand-led, or transaction-heavy consumer businesses where traffic, conversion, basket, margin, labor, and promo behavior drive earnings.

## Table of contents
1. Decision lens
2. Driver tree
3. Mandatory denominators
4. Typical gating items
5. Kill criteria examples
6. Evidence asks
7. Owner mapping
8. External triangulation when thin
9. Red flags

## Decision lens
- Are traffic and conversion durable, or temporarily inflated?
- Is same-store growth real after promo, mix, and calendar effects?
- Are gross margin and labor economics sustainable?
- Does the location base, lease profile, or inventory cycle create hidden downside?

## Driver tree
Default equation:

`traffic x conversion x average order value - COGS - labor - occupancy - fulfillment/shrink - promo drag`

## Mandatory denominators
- traffic and conversion by period
- average order value and units per basket
- same-store sales bridge
- promo rate, markdown rate, and net price realization
- gross margin by category or store cohort
- labor hours and labor cost as a percent of sales
- shrink, returns, refunds, and chargebacks where relevant
- inventory turns, aged inventory, and stockout rates
- lease expiries, rent escalators, and landlord concentration for store fleets

## Typical gating items
- Same-store sales rely on discounting rather than true traffic or mix gains.
- Gross margin expansion is inconsistent with markdowns, freight, or shrink.
- Labor, occupancy, or fulfillment cost burden is understated.
- Inventory quality is weak, with aging or stockout issues hidden by top-line growth.
- Store performance is concentrated in a few sites or temporary traffic anomalies.

## Kill criteria examples
- `price reset`: normalized margin after promo and shrink is materially below the case.
- `pause`: store-level economics are not reproducible across the fleet.
- `hard pass`: lease, inventory, or cash conversion issues impair the business beyond a workable structure.

## Evidence asks
- POS export by store, SKU/category, ticket, and day
- traffic counter or mall/co-tenant traffic data if available
- markdown and promo history by period
- inventory aging, turns, and stockout reports
- labor scheduling and payroll summaries
- store-level P&Ls and lease abstracts
- returns, refunds, and chargeback reports

## Owner mapping
- store operations lead or regional manager
- merchandiser or category manager
- CFO, controller, or bookkeeper
- ecommerce lead if omnichannel matters
- landlord or property manager for occupancy issues

## External triangulation when thin
- trade area demographics and income proxies
- traffic sources and co-tenancy context
- competition mapping and review density
- assessor and lease-market context when site economics matter

## Red flags
- Same-store sales are quoted without a comp-store definition.
- Gross margin excludes freight, fulfillment, or shrink.
- AOV gains come only from discount-driven basket mix.
- Inventory is old or seasonal risk is not disclosed.