skills/scenario-sensitivity-generator/references/target-backsolve-rubric.md

# Target Backsolve Rubric

## Feasibility labels

For every transaction backsolve, classify the result:

- `financeable and market-supportable`
- `mathematically possible and transaction-plausible`
- `mathematically possible but market-dependent`
- `mathematically possible but covenant-constrained`
- `mathematically possible but sponsor-return constrained`
- `mathematically possible but dependent on unapproved actions`
- `mathematically possible but inconsistent with source evidence`
- `mathematically possible but violates another constraint`
- `not mathematically possible within allowed levers`
- `not supportable from available information`

## Feasibility tests

Always test feasibility against:
- valuation support from comps, DCF, precedent transactions, market price, or plan value;
- required EBITDA, revenue, margin, synergy, or working-capital path;
- leverage capacity, debt service, coverage, and covenant cushion;
- financing market terms including rate, spread, OID, fees, tenor, and investor demand;
- sponsor IRR, MOIC, deleveraging, and exit assumptions;
- accretion/dilution tolerance, ownership, and pro forma leverage;
- liquidity trough, minimum cash, revolver availability, and refinancing timing;
- recovery value, collateral value, claim priority, and fulcrum sensitivity;
- source quality, as-of-date consistency, and unsupported seller or management claims;
- execution, regulatory, diligence, and timing risks.

## Backsolve output

Show:
- target metric;
- time horizon or transaction milestone;
- locked constraints;
- allowed levers;
- required driver path;
- feasibility label;
- what must be true;
- deal actions required;
- constraints or risks that could make the path fail.

Never present a mathematically solved transaction target as feasible without financeability, marketability, covenant, source-quality, and execution judgment.