evals/cases/04-mature-fmcg-losing-penetration.yml

id: mature-fmcg-losing-penetration
title: Mature FMCG brand losing penetration
prompt: |
  Household penetration fell for three consecutive quarters while repeat among existing buyers is stable. The CRM team wants a loyalty program. Diagnose the priority.
context:
  business_model: FMCG
expected_behaviors:
  - recognize penetration as the stated growth problem rather than defaulting to loyalty
  - inspect reach, distribution, availability, category buying situations, price, and distinctive recognition
  - question whether a loyalty program addresses the dominant constraint
  - separate acquisition of category buyers from frequency among existing buyers
forbidden_behaviors:
  - make retention the priority simply because CRM data exists
  - claim loyalty never matters in FMCG
  - prescribe broad reach without checking availability and economics
recommended_roles:
  - brand-growth-strategist
  - market-architect
  - channel-strategist
  - marketing-skeptic