skills/strategic-analysis/references/market-and-competition.md

# Market and competitive analysis

## Size an addressable opportunity

Define the customer, need, geography, product, period, and value-chain boundary before calculating. State whether the measure is revenue, spend, transactions, capacity, or profit. Distinguish the total market (TAM), the segment the offer can serve (SAM), and the obtainable share given capacity and acquisition economics (SOM).

Build bottom-up where inputs allow: eligible customers × purchase frequency × realized spend, or units × realized price. Check overlaps, channel margins, utilization, currency, inflation, and whether spend includes products outside scope. Reconcile with a top-down source using comparable definitions; do not average incompatible estimates.

Separate historical growth from forecast growth. CAGR is `(ending / starting)^(1 / years) - 1` for positive comparable endpoints; explain step changes, acquisitions, and an unusual base period. A forecast should identify its volume, price, mix, penetration, or capacity drivers. Show a range tied to uncertain inputs and the obtainable share needed to make entry worthwhile.

## Assess competitors from the buyer's perspective

Identify direct substitutes, adjacent entrants, and the option of doing nothing. Compare the factors that matter to the intended customer, using dated evidence. Pricing pages, filings, contract terms, customer interviews, and win/loss records answer different questions. A vendor's claim is not independent validation; a few interviews are not a representative market-share survey.

Use a compact competitor profile: served segment, offer, route to market, economics where known, source, and implication for this choice. Avoid filling unknown revenue or share with plausible-looking figures. Assess how incumbents could respond and whether the proposed advantage survives that response.

## Turn research into a decision

Name the demand, access, margin, or capability assumption that carries the recommendation. Identify the fastest credible test, such as a defined customer sample, paid pilot, channel discussion, or pricing experiment. Propose the research; execute interviews or outreach only within the user's authorization. Stop when the remaining uncertainty is unlikely to alter the decision at the required level of confidence.