canonical/modules/M003-daily-weekly-monthly-and-quarterly-cadence.md

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<!-- Module: 003 | Title: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly Cadence -->

## PART I - ANALYST OPERATING SYSTEM | MODULE 003

# Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly Cadence

> Mission. Build a recurring work system that prevents important filings, estimate changes, and thesis drift from being missed.

## Decision output

Objective: Build a recurring work system that prevents important filings, estimate changes, and thesis drift from being missed. The completed work product must be reproducible from evidence, show the downstream financial or decision effect when material, state the strongest contrary case, and define a dated update rule.

## Explicit operating procedure

1. Daily: triage new 8-Ks, filings, guidance, material news, regulator actions, price/volume anomalies, and thesis-break alerts. Record only items that can affect assumptions, risk, or evidence quality.

1. Weekly: review estimate changes, peer developments, channel/alternative-data signals, valuation drift, upcoming catalysts, and unresolved source questions.

1. Monthly: refresh industry dashboards, risk register, liquidity/capital-structure watch, competitor benchmarking, and major assumption confidence.

1. Quarterly: freeze the pre-earnings model, reconcile the reported period, update historicals, perform forecast-error attribution, revise valuation, and write a short post-mortem.

1. Event-driven: immediately elevate amendments, restatements, auditor/control issues, financing, M&A, litigation, covenant events, management departures, or regulatory changes that can alter the thesis.

1. Use a coverage calendar with named owner, due date, completion evidence, and escalation rule so cadence does not depend on memory.

## Required evidence and model bridge

- Primary-source set: source log, assumption register, decision journal, model-change log. Preserve exact document/version, date, period, and source location for every material factual input used in daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence.

- For each key concept - event triage, filing alerts, thesis reviews, estimate rolls, open-question queue, stale-assumption control - state whether it is a reported fact, analyst calculation, management claim, external estimate, or judgment. Quantitative concepts must retain raw components and units; qualitative concepts must retain the specific evidence and counterevidence.

- Map only economically relevant findings into the model or decision record. Process-control modules such as daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence may have no direct valuation line; in that case document the downstream error or governance risk the control prevents.

## Metrics and calculation controls

| Metric / concept | Construction | Required validation |
| --- | --- | --- |
| alert latency | Minutes or hours from a material filing/event becoming public to triage, classification, and assignment of required model action. | alert latency: Verify start/end timestamps or periods from source records, use a consistent calendar/business-day convention, and test outliers rather than averaging them away. |
| stale assumption count | Count of material assumptions whose source date or review date exceeds the predefined freshness threshold for that variable. | stale assumption count: Reperform the count from the defined population, inspect every material exception, and confirm the denominator/universe did not change between periods. |
| research backlog aging | Age distribution of open material research questions; track median days open, 90th percentile, and valuation-weighted overdue items. | research backlog aging: Reconcile beginning balance + additions - revenue/shipments - cancellations/adjustments to ending balance where data allow; verify cancellation rights, timing, and definition changes. |



## Worked application

> Case: a competitor changes pricing six weeks before the covered company reports.

- Reconstruct the relevant reported fact from primary evidence before interpreting the case. For daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence, show the raw components rather than only the resulting ratio or narrative.

- Build the causal chain through event triage, filing alerts, thesis reviews, estimate rolls, then identify which link is directly observed and which link remains an assumption.

- Calculate alert latency, stale assumption count, research backlog aging from sourced components under the reported/base interpretation and at least one skeptical alternative interpretation.

- Translate the difference between cases into the variable that matters for daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence: evidence quality, revenue, operating profit/NOPAT, free cash flow, invested capital, financing/dilution, risk, or valuation. Mark non-applicable links instead of inventing them.

- Expert consistency test: treat cadence as an operating system with exception alerts, not a calendar checklist.

- Precommit the specific future filing, KPI, customer/supplier observation, regulator action, or market input that would materially invalidate the daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence conclusion.

## Failure tests

- FAIL if event triage cannot be defined and reproduced from the source pack.

- FAIL if a material filing, guidance change, thesis-break signal, or stale assumption can occur without an assigned owner, alert path, and review deadline.

- FAIL if the daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence conclusion depends on an unstated assumption, unreconciled definition, or evidence that cannot be traced to its source/version.

- FAIL if evidence materially inconsistent with the daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence conclusion is omitted, reclassified, or dismissed without a documented definition, materiality, causal, timing, and source-quality analysis.

## Completion test

A senior reviewer must be able to reproduce the daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly cadence conclusion, vary the most sensitive assumption independently, trace the change through the model, understand the strongest opposing case, and identify the next evidence that would force an update. If any link is missing, the module remains open.