canonical/appendices/Appendix-K-senior-review-and-investment-committee-question-bank.md

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<!-- Appendix: K | Title: SENIOR REVIEW AND INVESTMENT COMMITTEE QUESTION BANK -->

# APPENDIX K - SENIOR REVIEW AND INVESTMENT COMMITTEE QUESTION BANK

## Evidence

- What is the single most decision-relevant primary-source fact?

- Which material claim relies on the weakest source?

- Which definition changed over time or differs most across peers?

- What evidence is missing that could plausibly reverse the conclusion?

## Economics

- What is the causal driver of value rather than the accounting proxy?

- What constraint prevents the forecast from being achieved?

- What is the incremental return on the next dollar of capital?

- Which reported improvement is cyclical, timing-related, or accounting-only?

## Forecast

- Which assumption contributes most to valuation sensitivity?

- What is the historical forecast error for this variable?

- What physical/customer/capacity reality does the forecast imply?

- What combination of assumptions is internally inconsistent?

## Valuation

- What percentage of value comes from the terminal period?

- What growth and return assumptions are embedded in the current price?

- Which EV-to-equity item is easiest to miss or double count?

- What valuation method would a skeptical investor use and why?

## Risk

- How does the largest risk transmit into cash and balance-sheet stress?

- What is the earliest observable indicator?

- What is the explicit thesis-break condition?

- Could the company survive the stress without external capital?

## Behavior

- What evidence are we discounting because it conflicts with the thesis?

- Did the conclusion change more than the underlying evidence?

- Are we anchoring to purchase price, prior target, consensus, or management guidance?

- What would we conclude if we had no position and saw the evidence today?



## Additional red-team questions

- Accounting: Which balance-sheet account would move first if management were pulling revenue forward or delaying expense?

- Accounting: Which non-GAAP exclusion has recurred often enough to be economically normal?

- Accounting: What assumption in reserves, useful lives, fair value, taxes, pension, or capitalization produces the largest earnings sensitivity?

- Industry: Who sets the marginal price and what evidence shows that today?

- Industry: Which capacity addition, substitute, standard, regulation, or technology shift could invalidate the market-size or margin framework?

- Industry: Is the company gaining share because of structural advantage or because a competitor is supply constrained?

- Management: Which capital-allocation decision created or destroyed the most per-share value over the last five years?

- Management: Which compensation metric can be optimized while intrinsic value deteriorates?

- Management: Where has management changed definitions, targets, or time horizons after a miss?

- Model: If we delete the forecast tab and rebuild from physical/customer drivers, which assumptions change?

- Model: Which forecast relies on capacity, sales headcount, customer adoption, regulatory approval, or financing that does not yet exist?

- Model: What is the largest unexplained residual in the historical driver bridge?

- Valuation: What terminal ROIC and reinvestment rate are implied by the terminal growth assumption?

- Valuation: How much value remains if the competitive advantage period is cut in half?

- Valuation: What happens to equity value after realistic refinancing, dilution, pension, minority interest and lease/debt-like claims?

- Data: Which alternative-data signal has been backtested out-of-sample, and what is its false-positive rate?

- Data: Could the data have survivorship, look-ahead, selection, geography, or definition bias?

- AI: Which conclusions were produced or transformed by AI, and which deterministic or human verification step independently checked them?

- AI: Can every AI-extracted fact be traced to exact source text and version?

- Decision: What would make us reverse the view today, and are we actually monitoring it?

## IC pass/fail gate

The recommendation does not pass senior review if the analyst cannot answer the highest-sensitivity assumption, strongest contrary evidence, liquidity/downside path, source provenance, and thesis-break question with a number or a specific evidence plan. "We will watch it" is not an acceptable answer without a source, cadence and threshold.