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references/elliott-wave.md
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# Elliott Wave Analysis
Technical timing skill that positions a stock within its Elliott Wave cycle, confirms with momentum, and contextualizes with market environment. Three modules run sequentially; each result feeds the next.
## Data Sources
All price data comes from the Longbridge CLI. **Before the first invocation of any
`longbridge` subcommand in a session, run `longbridge <subcommand> --help` to confirm
available flags, required arguments, and symbol format.** Do this for every distinct
subcommand you use (e.g. `kline`, `quote`, `capital`, `news`).
### What to fetch
| Data | Purpose | Minimum |
| ------------- | ------------------------------------------- | ---------------- |
| Daily K-line | Primary wave analysis | ≥ 250 bars, JSON |
| Weekly K-line | Higher-degree wave context | ~100 bars, JSON |
| Current quote | Latest price, range | JSON |
| Capital flow | Southbound / Northbound flow (if available) | JSON |
### Symbol validation
Not all ticker-like strings are valid on Longbridge — **index codes (e.g. SPX, HSI) are
not tradable securities and will return `invalid symbol`.** When you need broad-market
data, use a tracking ETF instead (e.g. SPY.US for S&P 500, 2800.HK for HSI). If
uncertain whether a symbol is supported, test with a small kline query first and handle
the error gracefully.
### Practical notes
- Always redirect CLI output to a temp file (e.g. `/tmp/kline_day.json`) — the CLI may
append version notices to stdout that break JSON parsing.
- Use `--format json` on every call so output is machine-readable.
- Market environment data not available in CLI → use Web Search (see Module C).
## Workflow
### Step 1 — Pre-flight checks
Before analysis, verify:
1. Run `longbridge kline --help` and `longbridge news --help` if you haven't already in this session.
2. Fetch ≥ 300 daily candles for the target symbol in JSON format; save to a temp file.
3. Count returned bars. **If < 250 bars → refuse analysis**, reply:
- CN: "历史数据不足250根日K，波浪计数不可靠，建议选择数据更充足的标的。"
- EN: "Fewer than 250 daily candles available — wave count unreliable."
4. Fetch the 5 most recent news items for the symbol. **If recent suspension/resumption or confirmed fraud/delisting → refuse.**
5. For A-share: if ticker has "ST" prefix → refuse.
### Step 2 — Module A: Wave Cycle Identification
Run `scripts/signal_engine.py` to compute swing points, wave count, and Fibonacci zones:
```bash
python3 scripts/signal_engine.py --kline /tmp/kline_day.json --symbol SYMBOL
```
The script outputs JSON with:
- `stage`: wave stage label (see Stage Labels below)
- `count_a` / `count_b`: two candidate count scenarios
- `agreed`: true if both counts give the same stage conclusion
- `fib_zones`: dict of Fibonacci price levels
- `swings`: list of recent swing points
**If `agreed` is false → output "结构待确认 / Structure Unconfirmed", do not force a stage label.**
**Stage Labels** (translate to user's language):
| Internal | Simplified CN | Traditional CN | English |
| ---------------- | --------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| `impulse_early` | 上升初段 | 上升初段 | Early Impulse |
| `impulse_wave3` | 主升段（③浪） | 主升段（③浪） | Wave 3 Advance |
| `impulse_late` | 上升末段（⑤浪） | 上升末段（⑤浪） | Late Impulse (Wave 5) |
| `top_zone` | 顶部区域 | 頂部區域 | Top Zone |
| `corrective_abc` | 调整段（ABC） | 調整段（ABC） | ABC Correction |
| `bottom_zone` | 底部区域 | 底部區域 | Bottom Zone |
| `unconfirmed` | 结构待确认 | 結構待確認 | Structure Unconfirmed |
### Step 3 — Module B: Momentum Confirmation
Compute from the same daily K-line data (all calculable from OHLCV, no extra API calls):
| Indicator | Parameters | Signal to Report |
| --------- | ----------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- |
| MACD | 12/26/9 EMA | Line vs signal, histogram direction, **divergence vs price** |
| RSI | 14-period | Level (>70 overbought / <30 oversold), **divergence vs price** |
| Volume | Raw volume | Wave 3 highest volume? Wave 5 / C-wave volume vs prior wave |
| MA trend | 20 / 50 SMA | Price above/below each MA; MA slope direction |
**Critical divergence signals (must flag explicitly):**
- Wave 5 top + MACD/RSI bearish divergence → **high alert, potential reversal**
- C-wave bottom + MACD/RSI bullish divergence → **potential bottom**
- Wave 3 + volume expansion → **confirms wave 3 validity**
Each indicator: state its current condition and whether it **supports / is neutral toward / contradicts** the Module A wave label. Do **not** sum into a single score.
### Step 4 — Module C: Market Environment
Assess macro/market context relevant to the stock's market. Each signal is independent — do not aggregate into a score.
For CLI data in this module, run `longbridge <subcommand> --help` first if you haven't
already. **Index codes are not valid symbols on Longbridge** — use tracking ETFs instead
(see "Suggested proxy" column). If a proxy symbol returns an error, fall back to Web Search.
**HK (HKEX)**
| Signal | How to get | Suggested proxy | Web Search fallback |
| -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | ---------------------- | ------------------------------------- |
| HSI trend (60-day) | `longbridge kline` — 60 daily bars | 2800.HK (Tracker Fund) | "恒生指数 今日" |
| Southbound flow | `longbridge capital` for the target symbol | — | "南向资金 今日净买入" |
| Short-sell ratio | Not in CLI | — | "[stock name] HK short selling ratio" |
| Recent policy / regulatory | — | — | Web Search |
**US (NYSE/NASDAQ)**
| Signal | How to get | Suggested proxy | Web Search fallback |
| ---------------------- | ---------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- |
| S&P 500 trend (60-day) | `longbridge kline` — 60 daily bars | SPY.US | "S&P 500 price today" |
| VIX level | Not in CLI | — | "VIX current level" |
| Put/call ratio | Not in CLI | — | "CBOE equity put call ratio" |
| Sector ETF trend | `longbridge kline` — 30 daily bars | Relevant sector ETF (e.g. XLK.US, XLE.US) | Web Search |
**A-share (SSE/SZSE)**
| Signal | How to get | Suggested proxy | Web Search fallback |
| -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | --------------- | ------------------- |
| Shanghai Composite trend | `longbridge kline` — 60 daily bars | 000001.SH | "上证指数 今日" |
| Northbound flow | `longbridge capital` for the target symbol | — | "北向资金 今日" |
| Margin balance trend | Not in CLI | — | "融资余额" |
| Recent CSRC/policy signals | — | — | Web Search |
**SGX**
| Signal | How to get | Web Search fallback |
| ------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------- |
| STI trend | CLI coverage may be limited — try a proxy first, expect errors | "Straits Times Index today" |
| Stock-specific news | `longbridge news` for the target symbol | "[company] SGX news" |
If a data item is unavailable from both CLI and Web Search, note "数据不可用 / Data unavailable" for that item only. Do not skip the whole module.
### Step 5 — Generate Output
Assemble the three-module result into the output template below.
## Output Template
The output uses **four sections** written in natural language — no bullet dumps. Match the user's language (Simplified CN / Traditional CN / English) throughout.
```
【{Company Name}（{SYMBOL}）】波浪技术分析
分析日期：{today} ｜ 当前价：{price} ｜ 今日区间：{low} – {high}
【一】波浪结构
当前阶段
{stage_label_natural} · {one-line characterisation}
{2–3 paragraph prose narrative:}
- Para 1: Describe the swing sequence in plain language from the key bottom/origin,
naming each wave and the price/date of each pivot. Explain why the current move
matches the identified stage. Avoid jargon — translate wave numbers to meaning.
- Para 2: Confirm with a second counting perspective (different threshold / degree).
State whether both agree ("两套视角结论一致") or conflict ("结构待确认，建议观望").
- Para 3 (if unconfirmed): Explain what would resolve the ambiguity.
波浪结构示意（ASCII，仅在结构清晰时输出）
价格
│
{high} ┤ {stage} ?
│ ╱
... ╱
{origin}┤ 起点╱
└──────────────────────▶ 时间
斐波那契参考区间
上行延伸目标（基准：{base_swing_low} → {base_swing_high}，波幅 {span}）
| 延伸比例 | 参考价位 | 说明 |
|---------|---------|------|
| 1.618 倍 | {price} | {interpretation} |
| 2.618 倍 | {price} | {interpretation — note if already breached} |
| 3.618 倍 | {price} | {next resistance if prior targets breached} |
回调支撑参考
| 支撑区 | 参考价位 | 说明 |
|-------|---------|------|
| 近期关注 | {price} | 整数关口 / 前期突破区 |
| 中度支撑 | {price} | 内部 38.2% 回撤 |
| 关键支撑 | {price} | 跌破则 {wave} 计数失效 |
| 深度支撑 | {price} | 跌破则整体结构需重新评估 |
失效条件：若日线收盘跌破 {invalidation_price}，{what it means}。
【二】动量与市场环境
动量指标
| 指标 | 当前状态 | 对波浪判断的意义 |
|------|---------|----------------|
| MACD（12/26/9） | 线值 {x} {>/< } 信号线 {y}，柱状图 {z} {扩张/收缩} | {supports/neutral/contradicts + reason} |
| RSI-14 | {value}，{超买/超卖/中性区}，{有/无}背离 | {meaning in context of wave stage} |
| 均线（MA20/MA50） | MA20 {x} / MA50 {y}，价格{领先/滞后}，MA20{向上/走平/向下} | {trend context} |
| 成交量 | 当日 {x}，{高于/低于} 20日均量 {y}（{+/-}%），近3日{放量/缩量} | {confirms or warns} |
{1–2 sentence synthesis: which indicators align, which diverge, and what that means for the wave count.}
{If bearish/bullish divergence detected: ⚠ 检测到 {顶/底}背离——{plain-language explanation of risk}.}
市场背景
{2–4 bullet points from news + Web Search covering catalysts, sector context, macro.
Each bullet: [emoji] event description → market interpretation.
End with a note if SPX/VIX data was not fetched: "VIX 及大盘最新状态建议通过 Web Search 确认。"}
【三】综合参考
趋势方向：{one sentence on primary trend and whether counter-trend trades are appropriate now.}
值得关注的区间
{Prose paragraph: describe 1–2 price zones worth watching for entry or caution,
combining Fibonacci levels + momentum trigger conditions in plain language.}
需要盯住的信号
{3 bullets, each: condition → what it implies for the wave count}
失效观察线：日线收盘跌破 {price}，当前判断需重新评估。
【四】做这个分析前，有几点需要告诉你
{3–4 short paragraphs of plain-language caveats tailored to THIS stock's specific situation:}
- Subjectivity of wave counting and what gives/reduces confidence here
- Fundamental / news drivers and "buy the rumour sell the fact" risk if applicable
- Any unusual price characteristics (e.g. Fibonacci targets already breached, extreme RSI)
- Reminder that daily close matters more than intraday wicks for invalidation levels
---
⚠ 本分析基于历史技术数据，不代表未来表现，不构成投资建议。
```
### Output rules
- **No bullet-list dumps** in sections 【一】–【三】. Use tables for data, prose for narrative.
- **ASCII wave diagram**: include when `agreed: true`; omit when `unconfirmed`.
- **Section 【四】is mandatory** — always write stock-specific caveats, never generic boilerplate.
- If `agreed: false`: replace 【一】prose with "两套计数方案结论不一致，建议观望" and skip the diagram and Fibonacci tables.
- **Disclaimer** is system-injected at the end; never omit or modify it.
## Error Handling
| Situation | Response |
| -------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `command not found: longbridge` | Fall back to MCP — discover the tool from the server's tool list at runtime; if also unavailable, ask user to install longbridge CLI |
| `not logged in` / `unauthorized` | Ask user to run `longbridge auth login` |
| < 250 daily candles | Refuse analysis with explanation |
| Recent suspension / ST stock | Refuse analysis with explanation |
| Both wave count scenarios conflict, no momentum tiebreak | Output "结构待确认，建议观望" — do not force a label |
| Web Search unavailable for Module C item | Mark that item as "数据不可用" — continue other items |
| Other CLI stderr | Surface verbatim — do not silently retry |
## Script
> ⚠️ **额外依赖 / Extra dependency required**
>
> `scripts/signal_engine.py` 依赖 `pandas` 和 `numpy`，使用前请确认已安装：
>
> ```bash
> pip install pandas numpy
> ```
>
> 通常已预装；若报 `ModuleNotFoundError`，运行上述命令后重试。
> Requires `pandas` and `numpy` — usually pre-installed. Run `pip install pandas numpy` if you see `ModuleNotFoundError`.
See `scripts/signal_engine.py` for the wave engine (ZigZag + 5-wave impulse + ABC correction + Fibonacci validation).
Usage:
```bash
python3 scripts/signal_engine.py --kline /tmp/kline_day.json --symbol AAPL.US
```
## Reference Files
| File | Contents |
| -------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------- |
| [references/fibonacci.md](references/fibonacci.md) | Fibonacci ratio tables for all wave relationships |
| [references/wave-structure.md](references/wave-structure.md) | Wave structure diagrams, iron rules, corrective variants |
| [references/market-environment.md](references/market-environment.md) | Per-market data sources and signal interpretation guide |
SHA-256: d4bb1403c82f293ac18a6aa695b477f1c16f50aa27c0e7b0a26c46ea32974b06