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references/buffett-moat-stock-screener.md
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# longbridge-buffett-moat-stock-screener
Prompt-only Buffett-style screener. Given a market / sector / preference query (no specific ticker), applies Buffett's two-layer model — hard quantitative filter then qualitative moat scoring — and returns a ranked candidate list (3–5 cards) with moat-type tags, Buffett-attitude verdicts, and one-click jumps into `longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer` for deep diagnostics. Every figure traces to a row in the mandatory **Data Source Appendix** at the end of the output.
## Cognitive frame (do not skip)
Screening is the **upstream entry** to the Buffett workflow: this skill generates candidates from zero; the downstream `longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer` verifies a single name in depth. Both share the same moat lens — only the interaction shape differs.
Two principles must surface alongside every leaderboard:
1. **Holding-period expectation** — Buffett's reference is "ideally forever, at minimum 3 years." If the user's capital horizon is < 3 years, warn that this framework is the wrong lens regardless of how clean the screen looks.
2. **Quality first, price second** — _"A great business at a fair price is far better than a fair business at a great price."_ A passing row tells the user the **business** is Buffett-grade; whether _this price_ is sane is a Dimension-4 (valuation) check that may downgrade the verdict to "watch and wait for a better price". Never collapse quality and price into one number.
Failure modes the screener must flag honestly:
- **"Great business, wait for price"** → quality passes but valuation 偏贵 / 高估 → 🟡 watchlist with target-price band, not a buy.
- **"Cheap but no moat"** → low PE/PB but moat narrow or absent → not a Buffett candidate; redirect to `longbridge-graham-screener` / `longbridge-graham-stock-analysis`.
- **Sector-disqualified industries** (e.g. airlines — Buffett publicly called the industry "value-destroying") → return an honest empty result with redirect to a closer-to-Buffett sector, not a forced top-N.
## Workflow
1. **Clarify the query** in at most one quick turn. Three input shapes are supported (see §3.2 of the design doc):
- **Preference-based** (most common): "find me consumer stocks worth long-term holding".
- **Sector / theme-based**: "Buffett-style names in new energy" / "Buffett's actual US holdings".
- **Condition-based** (advanced): "A-shares with 10y ROE > 20% and PE < 25".
If the user just says "recommend stocks" with no constraint, ask 1–2 framing questions (preferred market: A / HK / US? prefer steady — consumer/healthcare/financials — or growth — tech/new-energy?) before screening.
2. **Resolve the universe**:
- Sector / theme query → start from the index or sector universe via `longbridge constituent <INDEX>` or `longbridge sector-screener` candidate list.
- Preference / condition query without a stated market → default to the market the user most often references (A-share if Mandarin / Cantonese trader signal, US for English, HK if the user mentioned 港股). Echo the chosen universe back in the Market Summary.
- Cap batch size at 300 names per screen.
3. **Sector triage** — before any filter:
- **Excluded** (no scoring, drop with a one-line explanation in the Market Summary): airlines (Buffett: _"value-destroying"_), pre-revenue / pure-loss biotech (no track record), ST / 退市风险 names, listed < 5 years, pure-shell / negative-equity. If the user _explicitly_ asked for one of these (e.g. "Buffett-style airline"), return an honest empty result with a redirect to the most-similar non-excluded sector (e.g. "consumer staples with pricing power" or "regulated utilities with stable returns").
- **Sector-adjusted hard filter**: banks / insurance / brokerage — replace FCF / leverage rules with ROA / NIM / NPL / CAR (note the substitution per row).
- **Listed 5–10 years**: pro-rate the earnings-stability sub-score and flag "history-limited" in the row note.
4. **Fetch raw data via Longbridge CLI first** (parallel, ≤20 symbols per wave). See [§CLI](#cli). MCP fallback if `longbridge` is missing (see [§MCP fallback](#mcp-fallback)). **WebSearch only for items genuinely outside Longbridge**: industry outlook / disruption signals, brand-strength surveys, Buffett's own 13F holdings disclosure, qualitative management track record. Every WebSearch hit gets a publisher + URL + access-date row in the appendix.
5. **Layer 1 — Hard quantitative filter** (binary pass/fail). Symbols failing ≥ 2 filters drop out by default. See [§Filters](#filters) for the table; full thresholds in `references/criteria.md`.
6. **Per-row reconciliation gate**: if balance-sheet sum / current-assets sum / shares×price mismatches the reported total by >3%, drop the row from the leaderboard with a "数据异常" note in the data-anomaly footer. Do not silently smooth.
7. **Layer 2 — Qualitative moat scoring** on every name that passed Layer 1 plus reconciliation. Five-dimension weighted composite (0–100):
- Moat type & width (35%) · Capital allocation (20%) · Earnings predictability (20%) · Valuation reasonableness (15%) · Long-term industry runway (10%).
Full rubric in `references/criteria.md`. Each dimension also gets a 1–5 star rating shown on the candidate card.
8. **Verdict matrix** — combine Layer 2 quality stars (moat + financials) with valuation tier. See `references/criteria.md` §Verdict matrix. Maps to one of three card verdicts:
- 🟢 **符合巴菲特筛股标准 / Meets Buffett criteria** — wide moat + clean financials + price 充足/一般.
- 🟡 **部分符合，关注估值变化 / Partially meets criteria** — wide moat + clean financials + price 偏贵.
- 🔴 **当前不符合标准 / Does not meet criteria** — wide moat but price 高估, OR moat narrow at any price (redirect to Graham).
9. **Holding-period mapping** — derive expected min hold from moat width (★★★★★ → 5y+, ★★★★ → 3–5y, ★★★ → 1–3y, ★★ or below → not a Buffett candidate). See `references/criteria.md`.
10. **Rank and emit 3–5 candidate cards** (not a giant leaderboard — the design doc's deliberate cap). Follow the candidate-card template in `references/output.md`.
11. **Mandatory closing blocks** (every output, no exceptions):
- Selection rationale (2–3 sentences on why these names, current market caveat, deep-dive priority).
- Holding-period & user-education block (Buffett-style vs short-term expectations table — rendered in the user's language only).
- **Data Source Appendix** — every figure on every card traceable; every WebSearch row carries publisher + URL + date.
- Trilingual disclaimer from `references/output.md`.
12. **Deep-dive CTA** on every card, rendered in the user's input language only (e.g. _"Deep-dive → run `longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer <CODE>`"_ for English, _"深度诊断 → 运行 `longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer <CODE>`"_ for 简体, _"深度診斷 → 執行 `longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer <CODE>`"_ for 繁體). Pick one.
## CLI
Run `longbridge <subcommand> --help` to verify exact flags before each call — the CLI is the source of truth; do not hard-code flag spellings from memory.
```bash
# Universe
longbridge constituent <INDEX> --format json # e.g. 000300.SH, HSI.HK, SPX.US
# Per-symbol snapshot (run in parallel, batches of ≤20)
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json # PE / PB / market cap / ROE / dividend yield / sector tag
longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json # current price + suspended flag
longbridge basicinfo <SYMBOL> --format json # listing date / industry classification
# Per-symbol fundamentals (run in parallel)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report af --format json # 5–10y annual — leverage, equity, debt ratio
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report af --format json # 5–10y annual — ROE, gross margin, earnings stability
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report af --format json # 5–10y annual — FCF = OCF − Capex
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report qf --format json # last 4Q — recent trajectory
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report qf --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report qf --format json
# Long-window history for valuation-vs-history percentile (Layer 2 Dimension 4)
longbridge kline <SYMBOL> --period day --count 2500 --format json # ~10 years
# Dividend & buyback (capital allocation track record — Layer 2 Dimension 2)
longbridge dividend <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge corporate <SYMBOL> --format json # buyback / split / spin-off
# Ownership & insider flow (management alignment)
longbridge ownership <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge insresearch <SYMBOL> --format json
# Company profile (moat-type hypothesis seed)
longbridge company-profile <SYMBOL> --format json
# Peer set for moat / margin / ROE benchmarking
longbridge peer-comparison <SYMBOL> --format json
# Optional pre-narrowing if the user gave a sector / theme phrase
longbridge sector-screener --industry "<industry>" --format json
```
### WebSearch fallback — only for items not available from Longbridge
| Missing data | WebSearch query pattern |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Industry runway / disruption risk | `"<industry> 2025 outlook"`, `"<industry> disruption risk"` |
| Brand / pricing-power signals | `"<company> price increase 2024 2025"`, `"<brand> brand value ranking"` |
| Buffett's actual disclosed holdings (for "13F" / "Berkshire holdings" queries) | `"Berkshire Hathaway 13F <year>"`, `"Warren Buffett portfolio holdings <year>"` |
| Management qualitative track record | `"<CEO name> capital allocation"`, `"<CEO name> shareholder letter"` |
| Regulatory / policy overhangs | `"<sector> regulation <region> 2025"` |
| Latest insider transactions if `ownership` is stale | `"<ticker> insider selling 2025"` |
Every WebSearch-sourced figure must be tagged `[Source: WebSearch — <publisher>, <date>, <url>]` in the appendix; never silently mix it with Longbridge data.
## Filters
User-overridable. Defaults from Buffett's publicly stated reference points. Threshold detail and the Layer-2 composite weights live in `references/criteria.md`.
### Layer 1 — Hard quantitative filter (pass / fail gate)
| Filter | Buffett threshold | Source field | Sector adjustment |
| ------------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| ROE (5y avg) | ≥ 15% | derived from `financial-report --kind IS` (NI) ÷ avg equity from BS | Banks: use ROA ≥ 1.0% + NIM stability |
| Debt-to-asset ratio | ≤ 50% | BS — total liabilities ÷ total assets | Banks / insurance / brokers: substitute CAR / leverage-adjusted equity |
| Free cash flow | positive every year for last 3 years | `financial-report --kind CF` (OCF − Capex) | Banks: substitute operating-cash-flow proxy from interest income |
| Years listed | ≥ 5 years | `basicinfo.listing_date` | None — strict, pro-rate at 5–10y window |
| Gross margin (TTM) | ≥ 30% | `financial-report --kind IS` (gross profit ÷ revenue) | Heavy industry / utilities: relax to ≥ 20% with note |
Symbols that fail ≥ 2 filters drop out by default; user can relax to "fail ≤ 3" on request. Any override is echoed back in the Market Summary.
### Layer 2 — Qualitative moat scoring (weighted composite, 0–100)
Applied only to Layer-1 passers. Five dimensions, weights below. Full sub-criteria, evidence rules, and star mapping in `references/criteria.md`.
| Dimension | Weight | Plain-language framing |
| ------------------------- | ------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Moat type & width | 35% | Brand / network / cost / switching / regulatory / resource — wide / narrow / none |
| Capital allocation | 20% | Dividend & buyback discipline, M&A track record, insider stake |
| Earnings predictability | 20% | Earnings-volatility, cyclicality, revenue-mix stability |
| Valuation reasonableness | 15% | PE / PB / dividend-yield percentile vs 10y history, simplified DCF concept band |
| Long-term industry runway | 10% | Industry ceiling, disruption, regulatory exposure |
Default rank key = Layer-2 composite (high to low). User can override to: moat-stars-only, ROE desc, valuation-tier (cheapest first), or "Berkshire holdings only".
## Special handling
| Cohort | Treatment |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Airlines | **Excluded** — Buffett publicly called the industry "value-destroying". If the user explicitly asked for "Buffett-style airline", return an honest empty result and redirect to the nearest non-excluded sector (e.g. regulated utilities, consumer staples) with one-line rationale. |
| Pre-revenue / pure-loss biotech / hot-IPO concept names | **Excluded** — Buffett framework needs a track record. Redirect to `longbridge-fundamental` for an early-stage view. |
| ST / 退市风险 / listed < 5 years | **Excluded from default top-N**; show on request with the row prepended ⚠️ and a "history-limited" note. |
| Listed 5–10 years | Pro-rate earnings-stability sub-score on available years; mark row "history-limited". |
| Banks / insurance / brokers | **Included** with the sector-adjusted hard filter (ROA / NIM / NPL / CAR). Note substitution per row and in the Market Summary. |
| Reconciliation fail >3% | Drop from leaderboard; surface in "数据异常待复核" footer with the failing check named. |
| "最便宜的巴菲特风格股票" / "cheapest Buffett-style" query | Surface the distinction between _cheap_ and _margin of safety_. Show Layer-2 valuation tier (充足 / 一般 / 偏贵 / 高估) prominently; rank by valuation tier inside the wide-moat cohort, not by raw PE. |
| "巴菲特真实持仓" / "Buffett's actual holdings" query | Pull Berkshire's latest 13F via WebSearch (publisher + URL + filing date in the appendix), then run Layer 2 on the holdings as a secondary lens — note that 13F lag (≥45 days) can be material. |
## Output
3–5 candidate cards, **not a giant leaderboard**. Full card template, selection rationale block, holding-period education table, and the mandatory **Data Source Appendix** structure live in `references/output.md`. Minimum card fields:
```
Name (Code) · Market · Sector Quality stars: ★★★★★
Moat type: {brand / network / cost / switching / regulatory / resource}
Top-3 highlights (quantitative first): {ROE x%}, {Gross margin x%}, {FCF / capex intensity}
评级参考: 🟢 符合巴菲特筛股标准 / 🟡 部分符合，关注估值变化 / 🔴 当前不符合标准
Valuation read: {充足 / 一般 / 偏贵 / 高估} — current price vs 10y band
Min. holding period: {5y+ / 3–5y / 1–3y}
[深度诊断这只股票 → longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer <CODE>]
```
After the cards, every output must include:
1. **Selection rationale** — 2–3 sentences on (a) why these names together, (b) market caveats right now, (c) which one to deep-dive first.
2. **Holding-period & user-education block** — single-language table (in the user's input language) comparing Buffett-style expectations vs short-term/speculative expectations (holding time / entry pattern / drawdown tolerance / position logic / action frequency).
3. **Data Source Appendix (MANDATORY)** — every field on every card, every Longbridge endpoint hit, every WebSearch hit (publisher + URL + access date). The final line is a per-row reconciliation summary (clean pass / within-tolerance residuals / per-row drops).
4. **Disclaimer** — disclaimer variant matching the user's input language only, picked from `references/output.md` §Disclaimer variants. Never print multiple language variants. Every output must end with the following statement (in the user's input language):
- 简体：以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资决策请结合自身风险承受能力独立判断。
- 繁體：以上內容僅供參考，不構成投資建議。投資決策請結合自身風險承受能力獨立判斷。
- English: The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions independently based on your own risk tolerance.
## Error handling
| Situation | 简体回复 | 繁體回覆 | English reply |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| `command not found: longbridge` | 回退到 MCP；若不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。 | 回退到 MCP；若不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。 | Fall back to MCP; if unavailable install longbridge-terminal. |
| stderr `not logged in` / `unauthorized` | 请运行 `longbridge auth login`。 | 請執行 `longbridge auth login`。 | Run `longbridge auth login`. |
| `constituent` / `sector-screener` returns empty | 未能获取候选池，请确认指数或行业关键词。 | 未能獲取候選池，請確認指數或行業關鍵詞。 | Cannot fetch universe; verify the index or sector keyword. |
| User-named sector is on the excluded list (e.g. 航空 / pre-revenue biotech) | 该行业整体不符合巴菲特筛股逻辑（已说明原因），推荐改看 {替代行业}；如仍想分析，可改用 `longbridge-fundamental`。 | 該行業整體不符合巴菲特篩股邏輯（已說明原因），推薦改看 {替代行業}；如仍想分析，可改用 `longbridge-fundamental`。 | The sector does not fit Buffett's framework (reason given); suggest {alternative sector}; for early-stage analysis use `longbridge-fundamental`. |
| BS / IS / CF partial fetch for a symbol | 该标的数据不完整，跳过并在「数据异常」脚注列出。 | 該標的數據不完整，跳過並於「數據異常」腳註列出。 | Symbol has incomplete fundamentals; skipped and listed in the data-anomaly footer. |
| Industry runway / qualitative data missing (Longbridge + WebSearch both empty) | 维度评分仅用财务证据，标注「定性数据缺失」。 | 維度評分僅用財務證據，標註「定性數據缺失」。 | Score the dimension on financial evidence only and tag "qualitative data unavailable". |
| Per-row reconciliation gap >3% | 从候选卡片剔除并在「数据异常」附录列出失败项及差异。 | 自候選卡片剔除並於「數據異常」附錄列出失敗項及差異。 | Drop from candidate cards; list failing check + gap in data-anomaly appendix. |
| User gave no market / preference at all | 触发引导式提问：偏好市场（A/HK/美）？稳健（消费/医药/金融）还是有成长性（科技/新能源）？ | 觸發引導式提問：偏好市場（A/HK/美）？穩健（消費/醫藥/金融）還是有成長性（科技/新能源）？ | Ask one framing turn: preferred market (A / HK / US)? Steady (consumer / healthcare / financials) or growthier (tech / new-energy)? |
| Other stderr | 原样透传错误，不静默重试。 | 原樣透傳錯誤，不靜默重試。 | Surface stderr verbatim; never silently retry. |
SHA-256: 69caf558b8a01c0df1765e69950d51035b429098afcd7709286ad16d03b5b373