SKILL.md

---
name: legal-risk-assessment
description: Structured legal-risk scoring using a severity × likelihood matrix (1–5 each, score 1–25, GREEN/YELLOW/ORANGE/RED), including per-jurisdiction scoring driven by the highest-risk jurisdiction and triggers for escalating to outside counsel. Use when legal research feeds into a risk assessment or compliance decision across one or more jurisdictions.
---

# Legal Risk Assessment

Use this skill when legal research feeds into a risk assessment. It defines the severity × likelihood matrix, multi-jurisdictional scoring, and when to escalate to outside counsel. A risk assessment is only as good as the legal analysis that feeds it — complete the research (including the adversarial, doctrinal, and temporal checks) before scoring.

## Risk Assessment Framework

When the research feeds into a risk assessment, use the severity x likelihood matrix below.

### Severity (impact if the risk materializes)

| Level | Label | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | **Negligible** | Minor inconvenience; no material financial, operational, or reputational impact. |
| 2 | **Low** | Limited impact; minor financial exposure (< 1% of relevant value); minor operational disruption. |
| 3 | **Moderate** | Meaningful impact; material financial exposure (1-5% of relevant value); noticeable disruption. |
| 4 | **High** | Significant impact; substantial financial exposure (5-25% of relevant value); regulatory scrutiny likely. |
| 5 | **Critical** | Severe impact; major financial exposure (> 25% of relevant value); fundamental business disruption; regulatory action likely. |

### Likelihood (probability the risk materializes)

| Level | Label | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | **Remote** | Highly unlikely; no known precedent; would require exceptional circumstances. |
| 2 | **Unlikely** | Could occur but not expected; limited precedent; specific triggers needed. |
| 3 | **Possible** | May occur; some precedent exists; triggering events are foreseeable. |
| 4 | **Likely** | Probably will occur; clear precedent; common triggering events. |
| 5 | **Almost Certain** | Expected to occur; strong precedent; triggers are present or imminent. |

### Risk Score = Severity x Likelihood

| Score Range | Risk Level | Color |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Low Risk | GREEN |
| 5-9 | Medium Risk | YELLOW |
| 10-15 | High Risk | ORANGE |
| 16-25 | Critical Risk | RED |

### Multi-jurisdictional risk scoring

When assessing risk across jurisdictions, score each jurisdiction independently. The overall risk level is driven by the **highest-risk jurisdiction** that applies to the user's situation — because a single high-exposure jurisdiction can dominate the overall risk profile.

Present the per-jurisdiction scores in a comparison table:

```
| Jurisdiction | Severity | Likelihood | Score | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 3 | 4 | 12 | ORANGE |
| Germany | 2 | 3 | 6 | YELLOW |
| EU (CJEU) | 4 | 3 | 12 | ORANGE |
| **Overall** | | | **12** | **ORANGE** |
```

Where jurisprudence diverges across jurisdictions, flag the divergence explicitly — it's a risk factor in itself, because it creates uncertainty about how the issue will be resolved in practice.

## When to Escalate to Outside Counsel

Engage outside counsel when:

- **Active litigation** in any covered jurisdiction
- **Government investigation** or regulatory inquiry
- **Criminal exposure** for the organization or personnel
- **Novel legal issues** or questions of first impression
- **Jurisdictional conflict**: different jurisdictions reach opposite conclusions on the same question — this is inherently high-risk and benefits from local counsel in each jurisdiction
- **Material financial exposure** exceeding the organization's risk tolerance
- **Regulatory changes** requiring compliance program development across multiple countries