skills/catalyst-calendar/references/event-scoring-framework.md

# Event Scoring Framework

## Purpose
Prioritize events by how much they can change price, estimates, thesis confidence, or risk. A PM should see where attention is scarce and what deserves preparation.

## Materiality score, 1 to 5
Score based on expected effect on enterprise value, earnings power, narrative, financing, or risk.

5 - Thesis-defining or valuation-changing event. Examples: pivotal trial readout, major guidance reset, regulatory approval, antitrust decision, large M&A vote, investor day with new targets, covenant/liquidity event.
4 - Major estimate or multiple event. Examples: quarterly earnings with contested KPIs, key product launch, large contract award, rate case decision, macro print central to the trade.
3 - Meaningful update. Examples: conference with possible guidance nuance, monthly KPI release, peer read-through, non-core regulatory step.
2 - Monitoring event. Examples: routine conference, low-stakes data point, minor product update.
1 - Administrative or low-impact event.

## Actionability score, 1 to 5
5 - Requires immediate model, questions, scenario work, hedge/sizing decision, or meeting prep.
4 - Requires prep within one to two weeks.
3 - Monitor and prepare if new data arrives.
2 - Add to watchlist only.
1 - No action required.

## Date confidence
- High: primary source confirmed specific date/time or official release calendar.
- Medium: credible secondary source, company-indicated window, or multiple consistent non-primary sources.
- Low: historical cadence, rumor, stale source, broad window, or conflicting data.

## Priority assignment
Use combined judgment, not a rigid formula.
- Critical: materiality 5, actionability 4-5, or event can force position/thesis change.
- High: materiality 4-5 or significant portfolio exposure.
- Medium: materiality 3 or meaningful read-through.
- Low: materiality 2 with limited action need.
- Monitor: materiality 1 or date not reliable enough to act.

## Special escalators
Upgrade priority when any applies:
- event is within 7 days and prep is incomplete;
- date confidence is low but event materiality is high;
- event overlaps with another portfolio-critical event;
- expected volatility is high or liquidity is poor;
- market setup is one-sided or crowded;
- event has asymmetry not reflected in consensus;
- event can trigger follow-on catalysts;
- missing data prevents a clean risk decision.

## Red flags
Flag these explicitly:
- stale earnings date from secondary source;
- trial readout window without source or endpoint clarity;
- lockup expiry date without share count or holder context;
- regulatory date confused with filing acceptance, adcom, pdufa, or final approval;
- macro event listed without relevance to the security;
- conference event listed with no management participation confirmed;
- consensus or guidance cited without timestamp;
- model update required but not scheduled;
- event marked low priority despite direct thesis linkage.