skills/catalyst-calendar/references/portfolio-pm-playbook.md

# Portfolio PM Playbook

## What PM-grade catalyst work answers
For each top event, answer:
1. What is the decision: add, trim, hold, hedge, avoid, update model, update thesis, or wait?
2. What can change: estimate line, KPI trajectory, TAM, margin structure, multiple, risk premium, legal/regulatory path, liquidity, credit profile, or thesis confidence?
3. What is the market expecting: consensus, guidance, whisper numbers, positioning, revisions, implied volatility, short interest, borrow, and valuation setup?
4. What is our variant perception: where is the user's view different from consensus or current narrative?
5. What evidence matters: the datapoint, endpoint, management answer, regulatory action, or leading indicator that confirms or disconfirms the thesis?
6. What is the risk of being wrong: gap risk, liquidity risk, mandate risk, borrow risk, downside scenario, or opportunity cost?
7. What must be done before the event: model update, consensus refresh, call prep, diligence check, channel read, scenario analysis, or hedge review?
8. What happens after: follow-up date, update owner, model refresh, thesis log, risk meeting, trade review, or post-mortem?

## Ranking framework
Rank events using composite judgment, not date sorting:
- Impact: can the event change estimates, thesis, multiple, or risk limits?
- Timing proximity: is the event near enough to require work or risk action?
- Confidence: is timing confirmed or uncertain?
- Asymmetry: is upside/downside skew large relative to consensus or positioning?
- Setup: is the bar high/low, crowded/derisked, or underfollowed?
- Exposure: does the user own, short, benchmark, or hedge the security?
- Actionability: is there a decision before or after the event?
- Preparation gap: is the team underprepared or missing sources?

## Event-specific PM lenses
### Earnings
Separate reported quarter, guidance, KPI trends, margin bridge, cash flow, and qualitative commentary. Track consensus, whisper, guidance range, prior commentary, and recent revisions.

### Investor days / analyst days
Focus on medium-term targets, margin roadmap, TAM framing, capital allocation, segment disclosure, and whether targets are credible.

### Regulatory / legal
Distinguish deadline, hearing, vote, comment period, agency decision, and appeal timeline. Track probability, downside if adverse, sector read-through, and follow-up filings.

### Clinical / biotech
Separate abstract release, presentation, top-line data, full data, regulatory submission, adcom, and pdufa. Track endpoint, powering, comparator, safety, prior data, competitive data, and statistical risk.

### Macro / rates
Tie each print to actual securities affected: duration, curve, credit spreads, cyclicals, banks, housing, commodities, FX, or factor exposure.

### Lockups / flows / index events
Distinguish mechanical supply/demand from fundamentals. Track float added, holders released, average daily volume, borrow/short interest, index size, and likely liquidity impact.

### M&A / special situations
Break complex situations into filing, financing, shareholder vote, regulatory clearance, court date, tender expiration, outside date, close, and spread catalyst. Route to `event-driven-analyzer` when probability/spread/recovery analysis is needed.

## Next 30/60/90 day framing
- Next 30 days: high/medium impact events, overdue prep, and source conflicts.
- 31-60 days: events needing pre-work now, such as investor days, trial data, regulatory decisions, lockups, or high-impact earnings.
- 61-90 days: high-impact windows and long-lead workstreams.
- Beyond 90 days: monitor unless binary or high impact.

## PM Catalyst Discipline

Rank by decision pressure, not date proximity. A catalyst matters if it can alter estimate path, narrative, multiple, position size, downside, liquidity, or event probability. Low-impact dates should be hygiene unless tied to a decision.