skills/dcf-model-builder/assets/plan_template.json

{
  "meta": {
    "company": "Northstar Industrial Software, Inc.",
    "ticker": "NSIS",
    "industry": "industrial software / vertical SaaS",
    "currency": "USD",
    "units": "$mm except per-share data",
    "valuation_date": "2026-05-11",
    "as_of_date": "2026-03-31",
    "accounting_basis": "US GAAP",
    "valuation_purpose": "public_equity_screen",
    "model_type": "fcff"
  },
  "source_basis": [
    {
      "id": "src_hist_001",
      "topic": "historicals",
      "label": "reported",
      "source_name": "FY2025 Form 10-K financial statements (illustrative template source)",
      "source_type": "company_filing",
      "as_of_date": "2025-12-31",
      "confidence": "high",
      "notes": "Illustrative source entry used for smoke testing; replace with real filing reference for live work."
    },
    {
      "id": "src_forecast_001",
      "topic": "forecast",
      "label": "analyst_estimate",
      "source_name": "Analyst operating case based on reported history and management-style KPIs",
      "source_type": "analyst_model",
      "as_of_date": "2026-05-11",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "notes": "Replace with management plan, consensus, or sourced operating drivers for decision-grade use."
    },
    {
      "id": "src_wacc_001",
      "topic": "wacc",
      "label": "analyst_estimate",
      "source_name": "Illustrative market-data build for cost of capital",
      "source_type": "analyst_model",
      "as_of_date": "2026-05-11",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "notes": "Use current risk-free rate, peer beta, ERP, debt yields, and target capital structure for live work."
    },
    {
      "id": "src_terminal_001",
      "topic": "terminal_value",
      "label": "analyst_estimate",
      "source_name": "Analyst terminal-value framework",
      "source_type": "analyst_model",
      "as_of_date": "2026-05-11",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "notes": "Terminal growth and exit-multiple cross-check are illustrative."
    },
    {
      "id": "src_bridge_001",
      "topic": "net_debt",
      "label": "reported",
      "source_name": "Latest balance sheet and debt schedule (illustrative template source)",
      "source_type": "company_filing",
      "as_of_date": "2026-03-31",
      "confidence": "high",
      "notes": "Replace with latest cash, debt, leases, pensions, minorities, and non-operating assets."
    },
    {
      "id": "src_shares_001",
      "topic": "share_count",
      "label": "reported",
      "source_name": "Latest diluted share count disclosure (illustrative template source)",
      "source_type": "company_filing",
      "as_of_date": "2026-03-31",
      "confidence": "high",
      "notes": "Replace with current diluted shares and option/convertible treatment."
    }
  ],
  "timeline": {
    "start_year": 2025,
    "horizon_years": 5,
    "periodicity": "annual"
  },
  "historicals": {
    "latest_year": 2025,
    "revenue": 1200.0,
    "ebitda": 300.0,
    "ebit": 220.0,
    "cash_taxes": 52.8,
    "da": 80.0,
    "capex": 95.0,
    "change_nwc": 18.0,
    "net_working_capital": 140.0,
    "unlevered_fcf": 134.2,
    "source_id": "src_hist_001"
  },
  "forecast": {
    "cash_flow_basis": "fcff",
    "mid_year_convention": true,
    "source_id": "src_forecast_001",
    "notes": "Forecasts are driver-based using revenue growth, EBIT margin, cash tax, D&A intensity, capex intensity, and NWC intensity."
  },
  "wacc": {
    "risk_free_rate": 0.043,
    "beta": 1.12,
    "equity_risk_premium": 0.055,
    "size_premium": 0.01,
    "company_specific_premium": 0.0,
    "country_risk_premium": 0.0,
    "pre_tax_cost_of_debt": 0.0625,
    "marginal_tax_rate": 0.24,
    "target_debt_pct": 0.2,
    "target_equity_pct": 0.8,
    "source_id": "src_wacc_001",
    "preferred_pct": 0.0,
    "pre_tax_cost_of_preferred": 0.0
  },
  "terminal_value": {
    "method": "perpetual_growth",
    "perpetual_growth_rate": 0.025,
    "exit_ebitda_multiple": 13.0,
    "source_id": "src_terminal_001"
  },
  "ev_to_equity_bridge": {
    "cash": 180.0,
    "debt": 650.0,
    "leases": 45.0,
    "minorities": 0.0,
    "associates": 0.0,
    "pensions": 15.0,
    "preferred_stock": 0.0,
    "non_operating_assets": 25.0,
    "options": 0.0,
    "other_debt_like_items": 0.0,
    "diluted_shares": 92.5,
    "net_debt_source_id": "src_bridge_001",
    "share_count_source_id": "src_shares_001"
  },
  "scenarios": {
    "base": {
      "description": "Base case assumes durable vertical software growth, modest operating leverage, and steady reinvestment.",
      "revenue_growth": [
        0.09,
        0.08,
        0.07,
        0.06,
        0.05
      ],
      "ebit_margin": [
        0.195,
        0.205,
        0.215,
        0.225,
        0.235
      ],
      "tax_rate": 0.24,
      "da_percent_revenue": 0.06,
      "capex_percent_revenue": 0.07,
      "nwc_percent_revenue": [
        0.12,
        0.12,
        0.115,
        0.115,
        0.11
      ],
      "terminal_growth_rate": 0.025,
      "wacc_adjustment": 0.0
    },
    "downside": {
      "description": "Downside case reflects slower new bookings, weaker operating leverage, higher risk premium, and lower terminal growth.",
      "revenue_growth": [
        0.03,
        0.02,
        0.02,
        0.025,
        0.03
      ],
      "ebit_margin": [
        0.175,
        0.175,
        0.18,
        0.185,
        0.19
      ],
      "tax_rate": 0.24,
      "da_percent_revenue": 0.06,
      "capex_percent_revenue": 0.075,
      "nwc_percent_revenue": [
        0.125,
        0.125,
        0.12,
        0.12,
        0.115
      ],
      "terminal_growth_rate": 0.015,
      "wacc_adjustment": 0.005
    },
    "upside": {
      "description": "Upside case reflects stronger retention, better pricing, margin expansion, and lower perceived risk.",
      "revenue_growth": [
        0.12,
        0.11,
        0.1,
        0.08,
        0.07
      ],
      "ebit_margin": [
        0.205,
        0.22,
        0.235,
        0.25,
        0.26
      ],
      "tax_rate": 0.24,
      "da_percent_revenue": 0.058,
      "capex_percent_revenue": 0.068,
      "nwc_percent_revenue": [
        0.12,
        0.115,
        0.11,
        0.105,
        0.1
      ],
      "terminal_growth_rate": 0.03,
      "wacc_adjustment": -0.0025
    }
  },
  "sensitivities": {
    "wacc_delta": [
      -0.01,
      -0.005,
      0.0,
      0.005,
      0.01
    ],
    "terminal_growth_delta": [
      -0.01,
      -0.005,
      0.0,
      0.005,
      0.01
    ],
    "exit_multiple_delta": [
      -2.0,
      -1.0,
      0.0,
      1.0,
      2.0
    ],
    "revenue_growth_delta": [
      -0.02,
      -0.01,
      0.0,
      0.01,
      0.02
    ],
    "ebit_margin_delta": [
      -0.03,
      -0.015,
      0.0,
      0.015,
      0.03
    ]
  }
}