skills/earnings-preview/assets/templates/driver_model_templates.yaml

# Simple driver model templates used for scenario translation and sensitivity tables.
# These are intentionally lightweight and heuristic; replace with your house model as needed.

models:
  saas_simple:
    description: "SaaS: revenue/ARR driven; retention and net adds are key debates."
    required_kpis:
      - revenue
      - arr
      - nrr
      - gross_margin
      - operating_margin
    sensitivity_rules:
      # Heuristic: 1% ARR difference -> ~1% revenue difference (quarterly near-term)
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: arr
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 1.0
        units: "pct_to_pct"
      # Heuristic: 100 bps NRR -> +0.5% revenue over near term (tunable)
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: nrr
        driver_type: bps
        beta: 0.005
        units: "pct_per_bps"

  consumer_ads_simple:
    description: "Ads-driven consumer internet: engagement and pricing (CPM) drive revenue."
    required_kpis:
      - revenue
      - dau
      - mau
      - arpu
      - cpm
    sensitivity_rules:
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: dau
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.7
        units: "pct_to_pct"
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: cpm
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.5
        units: "pct_to_pct"

  payments_simple:
    description: "Payments: TPV and take rate drive net revenue."
    required_kpis:
      - revenue
      - tpv
      - take_rate
    sensitivity_rules:
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: tpv
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.8
        units: "pct_to_pct"
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: take_rate
        driver_type: bps
        beta: 0.01
        units: "pct_per_bps"

  units_asp_simple:
    description: "Semis/hardware: units and ASP drive revenue; GM drives EPS."
    required_kpis:
      - revenue
      - units
      - asp
      - gross_margin
    sensitivity_rules:
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: units
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.6
        units: "pct_to_pct"
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: asp
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.6
        units: "pct_to_pct"

  retail_simple:
    description: "Retail: comps drive revenue; GM and markdowns drive EPS."
    required_kpis:
      - revenue
      - comp_sales
      - gross_margin
      - inventory
    sensitivity_rules:
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: comp_sales
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.9
        units: "pct_to_pct"
      - target_metric_id: eps_diluted
        driver_metric_id: gross_margin
        driver_type: bps
        beta: 0.02
        units: "eps_per_bps"

  industrials_simple:
    description: "Industrials: orders/backlog and margins drive the quarter."
    required_kpis:
      - revenue
      - orders
      - backlog
      - operating_margin
    sensitivity_rules:
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: orders
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.5
        units: "pct_to_pct"
      - target_metric_id: operating_margin
        driver_metric_id: price_mix
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.1
        units: "pp_per_pct"

  banks_simple:
    description: "Banks: NIM and balances drive NII; credit drives EPS."
    required_kpis:
      - eps_diluted
      - nii
      - nim
      - deposits
      - loans
      - net_charge_offs
    sensitivity_rules:
      - target_metric_id: nii
        driver_metric_id: nim
        driver_type: bps
        beta: 0.015
        units: "pct_per_bps"
      - target_metric_id: eps_diluted
        driver_metric_id: net_charge_offs
        driver_type: pct
        beta: -0.3
        units: "pct_to_pct"

  energy_simple:
    description: "Energy: volume and realized price drive revenue/FCF; costs and capex drive leverage."
    required_kpis:
      - revenue
      - production_volume
      - realized_price
      - loe
      - capex
      - fcf
    sensitivity_rules:
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: production_volume
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.6
        units: "pct_to_pct"
      - target_metric_id: revenue
        driver_metric_id: realized_price
        driver_type: pct
        beta: 0.6
        units: "pct_to_pct"