skills/earnings-preview/assets/templates/preview_note_template.md

# [COMPANY_NAME] ([TICKER]) Earnings Preview Pack - [FISCAL_PERIOD_ID]
Freeze time: [FREEZE_TS] | Consensus snapshot: [CONSENSUS_SNAPSHOT_TS]
Preview quarter mapping: t = [PREVIEW_PERIOD] | t-1 = [PRIOR_PERIOD] | t-4 = [YEAR_AGO_PERIOD]

## Page 1 - Setup snapshot

### 1) Thesis / setup (one paragraph)
[THESIS_1P]

### 2) Last quarter recap
| Item | Takeaway |
|---|---|
| Beat / miss | [LAST_Q_BEAT_MISS] |
| Narrative | [LAST_Q_NARRATIVE] |
| Stock reaction | [LAST_Q_REACTION] |
| Debated KPI / issue | [LAST_Q_DEBATED_KPI] |
| Still relevant now | [LAST_Q_STILL_RELEVANT] |

### 3) Outstanding guidance
| Metric | Guidance value or wording | Source quarter | Type | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | [GUIDE_REV] | [GUIDE_REV_SOURCE_Q] | [GUIDE_REV_TYPE] | [GUIDE_REV_NOTE] |
| EPS | [GUIDE_EPS] | [GUIDE_EPS_SOURCE_Q] | [GUIDE_EPS_TYPE] | [GUIDE_EPS_NOTE] |
| KPI / margin | [GUIDE_KPI] | [GUIDE_KPI_SOURCE_Q] | [GUIDE_KPI_TYPE] | [GUIDE_KPI_NOTE] |

### 4) Guidance credibility + whisper framing
- Guidance track record: [GUIDANCE_CREDIBILITY]
- Whisper framing: [WHISPER_FRAMING]
- Provenance / confidence: [WHISPER_CONFIDENCE]

### 5) What matters this quarter (top 3-5 KPIs)
- [WHAT_MATTERS_1]
- [WHAT_MATTERS_2]
- [WHAT_MATTERS_3]

### 6) Expectation bar: Street vs whisper vs our base

| Metric | Street (cons) | Whisper | Delta (whisper-cons) | Notes |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Revenue | [CONS_REV] | [WHISPER_REV] | [REV_DELTA] | [REV_NOTE] |
| EPS (dil.) | [CONS_EPS] | [WHISPER_EPS] | [EPS_DELTA] | [EPS_NOTE] |
| KPI 1 | [CONS_KPI1] | [WHISPER_KPI1] | [KPI1_DELTA] | [KPI1_NOTE] |
| KPI 2 | [CONS_KPI2] | [WHISPER_KPI2] | [KPI2_DELTA] | [KPI2_NOTE] |

### 7) EPS-quality watch
[EPS_QUALITY_WATCH]

### 8) Options / positioning (optional)
- Implied move: [IMPLIED_MOVE_PCT]% (method: ATM straddle/IV)
- Skew/term notes: [VOL_NOTES]

---

## Page 2 - KPI dashboard + scenarios

### 5) KPI dashboard (auto-flag what matters)
[KPI_DASHBOARD_TABLE]

Legend: growth is QoQ/YoY for level metrics; bps deltas for rate metrics. Two-year stack used where seasonal.

### 6) Peer read-throughs
| Category | Name | Signal | Why it matters | Read-through | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [CATEGORY] | [NAME] | [SIGNAL] | [WHY] | [READ_THROUGH] | [CONFIDENCE] |

### 7) Scenarios (bull/base/bear)

| Case | Key driver(s) | Revenue | EPS | Expected reaction | Kill criteria |
|---|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| Bull | [BULL_DRIVERS] | [BULL_REV] | [BULL_EPS] | [BULL_RXN] | [BULL_KILL] |
| Base | [BASE_DRIVERS] | [BASE_REV] | [BASE_EPS] | [BASE_RXN] | [BASE_KILL] |
| Bear | [BEAR_DRIVERS] | [BEAR_REV] | [BEAR_EPS] | [BEAR_RXN] | [BEAR_KILL] |

---

## Page 3 - Debate map + call questions

### 8) Debate map (cruxes)
**Bull case**
- [BULL_1]
- [BULL_2]

**Bear case**
- [BEAR_1]
- [BEAR_2]

**Where we think the bar is**
- [BAR_1]

### 9) Must-answer questions for the call
[DYNAMIC_QUESTION_LIST]

### 10) Historical reaction framework
| Quarter | Beat / miss context | Next-day move | Reaction driver | Continued or reversed |
|---|---|---:|---|---|
| [QTR] | [CONTEXT] | [MOVE] | [DRIVER] | [DRIFT] |

Current implied move vs history: [IMPLIED_VS_HISTORY]

### 11) Macro / sector backdrop
- Positive: [MACRO_POSITIVE]
- Negative: [MACRO_NEGATIVE]
- Uncertain: [MACRO_UNCERTAIN]

### 12) Potential surprises / catalysts
| Item | Likely direction | Evidence strength | Signal quality |
|---|---|---|---|
| [CATALYST] | [DIRECTION] | [EVIDENCE] | [SIGNAL_QUALITY] |

### 13) Final pre-earnings checklist
- Top expectation-bar numbers: [TOP_BAR_NUMBERS]
- Top 3 metrics to watch: [TOP_3_METRICS]
- Bull catalyst: [BULL_CATALYST]
- Bear risk: [BEAR_RISK]
- Key read-through implication: [KEY_READ_THROUGH]
- Historical average move vs current implied move: [MOVE_COMPARISON]
- Single most important call watch: [CALL_WATCH]

### 14) Watch-fors / landmines
- [WATCHFOR_1]
- [WATCHFOR_2]
- [WATCHFOR_3]

---

## Page 4 (optional) - Appendix

### A1) Prior quarter: surprise and stock reaction
[PRIOR_Q_TABLE]

### A2) Notes and provenance
[PROVENANCE_NOTES]