skills/equity-model-update/references/sector-kpis.md

# Sector KPI Cheat Sheet

Select only the KPIs that affect the current model debate. For each selected metric, show last actual, guide/consensus, user model when available, bull/bear threshold, affected model line, freshness, and confidence.

## Software / SaaS

- KPIs: ARR, subscription revenue, NRR/DBNRR, gross retention, churn, cRPO/RPO, billings, new ARR, large-customer adds, cloud usage, gross margin, operating margin, FCF margin, sales efficiency.
- Red flags: billings decelerates ahead of revenue, NRR weakens without segment detail, margin beat comes from underinvestment, RPO duration flatters growth.

## Internet / Marketplaces / Digital Ads

- KPIs: GMV/GTV/bookings, take rate, active users, frequency, conversion, ad pricing, impressions, CAC/TAC, contribution margin, cohort retention, supply-demand liquidity.
- Red flags: revenue beats only from take-rate expansion, engagement deteriorates, supply quality weakens, CAC rises faster than LTV.

## Semis / Hardware

- KPIs: units, ASP, content growth, backlog, book-to-bill, inventory, channel inventory, gross margin, utilization, capex, node/product mix.
- Red flags: backlog cancellations, inventory rebuild without sell-through, margin supported by temporary mix, capex cycle outruns demand.

## Banks / Diversified Financials

- KPIs: NII, NIM, deposits, beta, loan growth, fee income, credit costs, NCOs, reserves, CET1, AOCI, RWA, tangible book value.
- Red flags: deposit costs reset faster than assets, reserve release flatters EPS, credit migration outpaces charge-offs, capital return masks RWA pressure.

## Insurance

- KPIs: combined ratio, loss ratio, expense ratio, renewal pricing, retention, catastrophe losses, reserve development, book value, ROE, investment yield.
- Red flags: prior-year reserve releases support earnings, pricing lags loss cost trend, cat normalization too benign, investment income hides underwriting weakness.

## Asset Managers / Exchanges / Market Structure

- KPIs: AUM, flows, fee rate, performance fees, transaction volumes, open interest, data/analytics revenue, operating leverage.
- Red flags: mix shift lowers fee rate, organic growth masked by markets, volume spike is non-recurring, expenses reset higher.

## Payments / Fintech

- KPIs: TPV, transactions, take rate, active accounts, interchange/spread, fraud losses, funding costs, CAC, cohort profitability.
- Red flags: volume growth slows as take rate compresses, credit/fraud losses lag volume, funding cost sensitivity understated.

## Consumer / Retail / Restaurants / CPG

- KPIs: comps, traffic, ticket, price/mix, units, margin, inventory, shrink, promo intensity, same-store sales, restaurant-level margin.
- Red flags: price drives comp while traffic falls, gross margin beat from temporary commodity relief, inventory markdowns deferred.

## Industrials / Transportation

- KPIs: orders, backlog, book-to-bill, price/cost, utilization, shipments, mix, productivity, working capital, FCF conversion.
- Red flags: backlog quality weakens, price/cost turns negative, volume deleverage appears before management guide resets.

## Energy / Natural Resources

- KPIs: production, realized price, LOE, capex, decline rates, reserves, hedges, FCF, leverage, shareholder returns.
- Red flags: production held by unsustainable capex, hedge book masks price exposure, maintenance capex understated.

## Utilities / Power

- KPIs: rate base, allowed ROE, load growth, capex, regulatory lag, earned ROE, fuel recovery, balance sheet, dividend coverage.
- Red flags: capex requires equity, regulatory outcomes lag plan, storm/fuel recovery timing strains liquidity.

## REITs / Real Estate

- KPIs: occupancy, rent growth, leasing spreads, NOI, AFFO, cap rates, development yields, leverage, debt maturities.
- Red flags: occupancy bought with concessions, cap-rate expansion not in NAV, floating-rate exposure pressures AFFO.

## Healthcare Services / Managed Care

- KPIs: medical loss ratio, membership, utilization, rate updates, acuity, labor cost, admissions, payer mix, reimbursement.
- Red flags: utilization acceleration, rate mismatch, labor inflation, payer mix deterioration.

## Biotech / Pharma / Medtech

- KPIs: trial milestones, enrollment, efficacy/safety endpoints, launch curve, script trends, gross-to-net, pipeline spend, patent cliffs.
- Red flags: endpoint ambiguity, safety signal, slow adoption, channel inventory, gross-to-net deterioration.

## Media / Telecom / Cable

- KPIs: subscribers, ARPU, churn, broadband net adds, ad revenue, affiliate fees, content spend, capex, FCF.
- Red flags: promo-driven subs, ARPU/churn tradeoff worsens, content costs outpace monetization, capex intensity rises.