skills/event-driven-analyzer/references/litigation_regulatory_playbook.md

# Litigation and Regulatory Event Playbook

Use this reference for litigation, regulatory approvals, antitrust, CFIUS, sector regulators, trials, settlements, appeals, injunctions, damages, and agency decisions.

## Important boundary

Provide investment analysis, not legal advice. Identify where counsel input is required. If the user provides possible material non-public information, do not give a trade recommendation based on it.

## Litigation objective

Answer: What are the probability-weighted security impacts of legal outcomes, timing, settlement incentives, appeals, damages, and remedies?

## Litigation required fact pack

- Company/security.
- Claim type and venue.
- Parties.
- Judge or tribunal if public.
- Procedural posture: complaint, motion to dismiss, discovery, summary judgment, trial, post-trial, appeal, settlement.
- Key dates: hearing, trial, ruling, appeal deadline.
- Damages theory and remedy sought.
- Injunction or business-model impact.
- Company disclosures and reserves if available.
- Insurance, indemnity, or financing capacity if disclosed.
- Prior settlements or comparable cases if available.
- Current market-implied move or damages if inferable.

## Litigation workflow

1. Define the legal issue in investor language.
2. Map procedural posture and timeline.
3. Identify possible outcomes: win, partial loss, loss, injunction, settlement, appeal, delay.
4. Estimate economics by outcome: cash damages, royalty, injunction, business-model change, balance-sheet pressure, financing need.
5. Analyze settlement incentives and timing.
6. Infer what the market prices using equity move, options, credit, or comparable securities.
7. Build probability tree and expected value.
8. Recommend trade expression: common, options, bonds, pair trade, avoid, or wait.
9. Build monitoring plan.

## Litigation senior judgment questions

- Is the market focused on the right legal question?
- Is the event truly binary, or is settlement the base case?
- Does the plaintiff need an injunction, damages, or negotiating leverage?
- Does the defendant have willingness and capacity to settle?
- Is the key risk merits, damages, remedy, appeal, or timing?
- Is the equity impact over- or under-discounting likely cash impact?
- Is options exposure cleaner than common equity?

## Regulatory objective

Answer: Which regulator controls the outcome, what process applies, what remedy or delay is likely, and whether the current price compensates for the path risk.

## Regulatory required fact pack

- Company/security and transaction or business event.
- Regulator(s) and jurisdiction(s).
- Filing status and review stage.
- Statutory or expected timeline.
- Decision standard and key issue.
- Theory of harm or agency concern.
- Customer/competitor/political opposition.
- Remedy feasibility.
- Litigation likelihood.
- Interaction with outside date, financing, and company liquidity.
- Precedent matters if relevant.

## Regulatory workflow

1. Identify the controlling agency and process.
2. Define the core issue: antitrust, national security, sector license, safety, data/privacy, reimbursement, drug approval, environmental, utility, banking, telecom, defense, or foreign ownership.
3. Map official status and likely timeline.
4. Identify remedies, concessions, or conditions that could solve the issue.
5. Evaluate whether delay changes economics.
6. Build outcomes: cleared, cleared with remedy, delayed, challenged/blocked, abandoned, recut.
7. Translate outcomes into security values.
8. Recommend trade expression and monitoring.

## Regulatory senior judgment questions

- Is the real risk agency review, court litigation, political pressure, or remedy economics?
- Does the outside date allow enough time?
- Can the buyer accept the remedy without destroying deal rationale?
- Is the regulatory issue structural, behavioral, national security, or process timing?
- Are other jurisdictions likely to coordinate or diverge?
- Is there a credible path to settlement?
- What would force a recut or abandonment?

## Antitrust underwriting prompts

Consider:
- Horizontal concentration and market shares.
- Vertical foreclosure.
- Potential or nascent competition.
- Platform/ecosystem effects.
- Labor-market effects.
- Serial acquisition/roll-up concerns.
- Customer harm evidence.
- Customer/competitor complaints.
- Divestiture buyer feasibility.
- Behavioral remedy credibility.
- Litigation venue and judge if challenged.

## CFIUS / national security prompts

Consider:
- Foreign ownership/control.
- Sensitive personal data.
- Critical technology.
- Critical infrastructure.
- Government contracts.
- Proximity to sensitive facilities.
- Mitigation agreement feasibility.
- Political environment.
- Interaction with financing and outside date.

## Sector regulator prompts

For banking, utilities, telecom, defense, healthcare, energy, insurance, airlines, and other regulated sectors, identify:
- Required approvals.
- Public-interest standard.
- Local/state/federal overlap.
- Ratepayer/customer impact.
- License transfer issues.
- Foreign ownership restrictions.
- Political stakeholders.
- Historical approval/remedy pattern.

## Output requirements

- Clear statement of controlling issue.
- Timeline with known and estimated dates.
- Scenario tree with probabilities and values.
- Remedy/settlement path.
- Market-implied vs analyst probability where possible.
- Trade expression.
- Monitoring plan with official sources.
- Legal-advice caveat where appropriate.