skills/event-driven-analyzer/references/output_templates.md

# Output Templates

Use these templates as content guides for PM-quality event output. For an explicit full event analysis, full report, or reusable/source-heavy special-situations package, default to a polished standalone HTML event report following `../../../shared/html-artifact-standard.md` and the event-specific HTML guidance in the owning skill. Do not force a fixed section inventory when evidence or event type calls for a different structure. Use the quick read only when the user explicitly asks for a quick, short, summary, one-page, brief, or TL;DR output.

## HTML Full Event Report

Use flexible standalone HTML for a substantive full event report. Lead with a decision posture that matches the evidence stage and put the event type's primary analytical object near the top. If live pricing or execution evidence required to act is missing, label the artifact as an underwriting framework or entry screen, state what is needed to initiate, and avoid an executable trade headline.

For a spin-off or split-off, prioritize distribution mechanics and hard dates, the value-allocation bridge, SpinCo and RemainCo starting points, confirmed technical-flow evidence versus thesis, entry screen, monitoring, and red team. For merger arbitrage, show spread, downside, implied probability, and scenario math only when supportable. For regulatory or litigation events, prioritize procedural path, remedy risk, and payoff implications.

Use the full content inventory below as applicable. Replace unsupported market-pricing, probability, scenario, or expected-return modules with evidence gaps, valuation screens, and gating inputs rather than presenting false precision.

## Explicit Quick PM Read

```markdown
# Event-Driven Quick Read: [Company / Ticker] - [Event Type]

**Recommendation:** [Buy / Avoid / Watch / Add / Trim / Use options / Wait]
**Preferred expression:** [Security/trade]
**Sizing view:** [Starter / core / small due to gap risk / no position]
**Market data timestamp:** [Date/time/source or unavailable]

## Setup
- Event:
- Current price:
- Event value / deal value / target value:
- Gross spread / expected return:
- Expected timing:
- Next catalyst:

## PM View
[3-6 bullets that state the variant view, not just facts.]

## Market-Implied vs Our View
- Market-implied probability:
- Our probability:
- Key difference:

## Downside / Break Value
- Downside value:
- Methodology:
- Main weakness in downside estimate:

## Scenario Tree
| Scenario | Probability | Timing | Value | Return | Rationale | Signposts |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---|

## Gating Item
- Controlling issue:
- Who controls it:
- What evidence matters next:

## Trade Construction
- Instrument:
- Hedge:
- Liquidity/borrow/carry:
- Review threshold:

## Monitoring Plan
| Catalyst | Date/window | Source | Positive signal | Negative signal | Action |
|---|---:|---|---|---|---|

## Red Team
- How we lose money:
- What would change our mind:
```

## Full Event Content Inventory

```markdown
# Event-Driven Analysis: [Company / Ticker] - [Event Type]

## 1. PM Decision Summary
- Recommendation:
- Preferred expression:
- Suggested sizing:
- Current price:
- Event value:
- Gross spread / expected return:
- Annualized return if relevant:
- Market-implied probability:
- Our probability:
- Primary gating item:
- Next catalyst:
- Kill criteria:

## 2. Facts / Assumptions / Judgments
### Facts
- [Source-backed facts]
### Assumptions
- [User or model assumptions]
### Judgments
- [Analyst/PM estimates]

## 3. Situation Overview
- Event:
- Parties:
- Securities:
- Announcement date:
- Consideration / transaction mechanics:
- Expected timing:
- Required approvals:
- Source documents reviewed:
- Missing critical sources:

## 4. Timeline
| Date/window | Event | Known or estimated | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|

## 5. Market Pricing
- Current price and timestamp:
- Spread / return:
- Carry, dividends, borrow, financing:
- Market-implied probability:
- Sensitivity to timing:

## 6. Downside / Terminal Value
- Method 1:
- Method 2:
- Selected downside:
- Why selected:
- Key downside uncertainty:

## 7. Scenario Tree
| Scenario | Probability | Timing | Terminal value | Return | Rationale | Signposts |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---|

## 8. Event-Specific Analysis
[Use the relevant playbook: merger, spin, activism, litigation/regulatory, restructuring, technical situation.]

## 9. Trade Construction and Risk
- Best expression:
- Alternative expression:
- Hedge:
- Sizing:
- Liquidity:
- Borrow/carry:
- Factor/beta exposure:
- Mark-to-market path:

## 10. Monitoring Dashboard
| Monitor | Date/window | Source | Positive signal | Negative signal | Action |
|---|---:|---|---|---|---|

## 11. Red-Team / Bear Case
- Strongest bear argument:
- What the market may know:
- Hidden risks:
- Crowding/liquidity/path risk:
- Kill criteria:

## 12. Open Questions
- [Question]
- Why it matters:
- How to resolve:

## 13. Sources and Assumptions
- Sources:
- Market data timestamp:
- Unverified items:
```

## Monitoring update

```markdown
# Event-Driven Monitoring Update: [Company / Ticker]

## What changed
- New fact:
- Source:
- Date:

## Impact on thesis
- Prior probability:
- Updated probability:
- Prior recommendation:
- Updated recommendation:
- Why:

## Updated scenario tree
| Scenario | Prior probability | Updated probability | Value | Comment |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|

## Action
- Add / hold / trim / exit / wait:
- Review threshold:
- Next catalyst:
```

## Red-team template

```markdown
# Event-Driven Red Team: [Company / Ticker]

## Thesis being tested
[State the bull/base thesis in one paragraph.]

## Biggest ways this loses money
1. [Risk]
2. [Risk]
3. [Risk]

## Weakest assumptions
| Assumption | Why it may be wrong | Evidence needed | Impact if wrong |
|---|---|---|---|

## Downside challenge
- User downside:
- Alternative downside:
- Difference:

## Probability challenge
- User probability:
- Market-implied probability:
- Alternative probability:
- Why:

## Path risk
- Delay:
- Liquidity:
- Borrow/carry:
- Crowding:
- Forced selling:

## Revised recommendation
[Decision and why.]
```

## Event PM Judgment Output

State edge type: underwriting, timing, flow, legal/process, or mispriced optionality. Include base-rate awareness, trade expression menu, event probability, downside methodology, liquidity/borrow/crowding, path risk, and exit plan.