skills/thesis-tracker/references/investor-sector-overlays.md

# Investor And Sector Overlays

Use only decision-useful overlays; do not force every item into every output.

## Investor Types

| Mandate | Emphasize | Action language |
|---|---|---|
| Long-only | Durability, benchmark active weight, downside, opportunity cost, governance/capital allocation, best use of capital | add to active weight, maintain, trim, exit, watchlist, re-underwrite |
| Long/short | Variant perception, catalyst/setup, revisions, valuation/multiple risk, crowding, borrow/squeeze, factor/sector beta, gross/net/liquidity | press, add, reduce gross, cover, pair, hedge, wait, monetize |
| Sell-side | Rating/target support, estimates, valuation method, client debate, published-fact/opinion split | maintain, upgrade/downgrade, raise/lower target, revise estimates, publish |
| Event-driven | Scenario tree, probability, timing/path dependency, legal/regulatory/shareholder/financing milestones, unaffected/break price, EV/spread | update probability/EV, hedge event risk, wait for milestone, exit |
| Equity-risk credit signal / Credit Markets handoff | Common-equity downside from leverage, liquidity runway, maturities/refi, covenant pressure, rating pressure, CDS/spread signals, or equity-credit divergence | trim/exit/hedge/re-underwrite equity; route debt-security, recovery, covenant-package, and stack-priority work to Credit Markets |
| Macro/rates-linked | Rates, FX, commodities, inflation, curve, central bank/fiscal/regulatory drivers, duration/convexity, factor/correlation | isolate macro beta, hedge factor, wait for print, resize |

## Sector KPI And Red-Flag Map

| Sector | Track | Red flags |
|---|---|---|
| Software/SaaS | ARR/MRR, NRR/GRR, churn/expansion, bookings/billings/RPO/cRPO, sales efficiency, gross/FCF margin, Rule of 40, pricing/usage/cloud costs | cRPO decel, NRR masked by price, sales-efficiency erosion, RPO quality, margin from underinvestment |
| Internet/marketplaces | GMV/GTV, take rate, users, frequency, conversion, cohorts, liquidity, CAC, regulation/platform risk | take-rate pressure, traffic quality, seller churn, regulatory overhang, paid-growth dependence |
| Semis/hardware | units, ASP, mix, backlog, book-to-bill, inventory, utilization, lead times, gross margin, capex, design wins, export controls | inventory correction, pull-forward, underutilization, order cancels, customer capex cuts |
| Banks/lenders | NIM/NII, deposit beta, loan growth, funding mix, credit losses/reserves/NPLs, CET1, liquidity, HTM marks, fees/expenses | deposit outflows, funding spike, reserve gap, CRE concentration, capital constraints |
| Insurance | combined/loss/expense ratio, pricing/renewal/retention, reserves, cat exposure, investment income, capital/buybacks | adverse development, underpriced risk, cat creep, social inflation, capital strain |
| REITs/real estate | same-store NOI, occupancy, leasing spreads, AFFO/FFO, cap rates/NAV, debt maturities, tenant health, asset sales | cap-rate expansion, tenant bankruptcy, maturity wall, dividend coverage, occupancy decline |
| Energy/E&P | production, realized prices, hedge book, capex/FCF/leverage, reserves, lifting costs, inventory depth, well productivity | inventory exhaustion, cost inflation, poor hedges, production miss, leverage creep |
| Biotech/pharma | trial design/endpoints/safety, regulatory path, cash runway/dilution, IP/exclusivity, launch scripts/coverage, pipeline odds | endpoint ambiguity, safety imbalance, subgroup mining, cash shortfall, trial/regulatory delay |
| Consumer/retail | comps, traffic, ticket, conversion, gross margin, markdowns, shrink, freight, inventory/sell-through, unit economics | inventory build, promotions, traffic masked by pricing, category slowdown, working-capital strain |
| Industrials/transports | orders/backlog/book-to-bill, organic growth, price/cost, margins, supply chain/labor, capex cycle, FCF conversion | order deterioration, cancels, price/cost reversal, margin miss, channel destock |
| Media/telecom/cable | subs, ARPU, churn, broadband adds, ads, content/sports costs, capex, leverage, FCF | churn acceleration, ARPU pressure, leverage/capex squeeze, content inflation, ad decline |
| Exchanges/brokers/asset managers | AUM/AUA, flows, fee rate, market beta, volumes/volatility, NII, expense discipline, regulation | fee compression, flow weakness, active underperformance, volume normalization, fee caps |
| Payments/fintech | TPV/GPV, take rate, transaction margin, active accounts, engagement, credit losses, fraud/compliance, funding cost | take-rate compression, loss normalization, regulatory scrutiny, funding pressure, cohort decay |

## Cross-Sector Debate Prompts

Ask whether the debate is growth, margin, multiple, balance sheet, management credibility, or regulation; whether the KPI is leading or lagging; whether evidence changes earnings power or timing; whether weakness is cyclical/company-specific/structural; what is market-implied; and what the smartest opposing investor would say.